Top 5 Gold Derby Emmys predictions experts from the last 5 years

Who is the top performing pundit, the top crystalballer in the multiverse of Emmy Awards predictions?

Steaming into Emmy Awards season, there is no shortage of opinion and prognostication for who is in, who is out, and who will emerge victorious.

But here at the global betting heading headquarters of all things entertainment awards, one of our cornerstone philosophies is accountability. Not only with what you predict, but in the outcome and ultimate performance indicator: did you put your money behind it and win?

Following the inaugural five year Oscar predictions expert leaderboard, published in January 2023, we return with the first ever list for the top performing Emmy Awards predictions pundit.

We painstakingly trolled the numbers over the last five years of Emmy nominations and wins. The combination of nominations and wins is key because it provides a larger sample size:

• For the 2022 Emmy Awards nominations, there is a choice of 156 predictions across 25 categories. With an increasing abundance of TV from which to choose, the predictions of nominations is harder compared with selecting the winner

• With nominations confirmed, then you must select the winner in each of the 25 categories.

• Therefore, for one Emmy Awards season, there are 181 data points (156 nominations plus 25 winners.) Multiply this across the last five years, and you have over 900 data points. This is a large enough sample size to be give us statistical significance and confidence in showcasing the Emmy Awards best of the best predictions pundits.

The criteria used to calculate the Best Gold Derby predictions expert over the last 5 years 

With 25 categories at the 2023 Emmy Awards, there are hundreds of permutations and options. In comparison with the Academy Awards predictions, where there are ten slots for Best Picture and five openings in the other categories, the Emmys smorgasbord is larger. That is, more chances to predict right, more chances to get it wrong.

For full transparency, the formula used to calculate the top Emmy Awards predictions pundit is: accumulative total % across each data category (wins + nominations) divided by the number of corresponding of awards.

e.g. nominations prediction rate % for Emmy Awards 2022 + win prediction rate % for Emmy Awards 2022 / 2 = average of Emmy Awards 2022 season.

In the above scenario, this is a calculation for one year. For the breadth and depth of 5 years, this would be: nominations % + win % divided by 10.

Where a Gold Derby pundit was listed on the leaderboard for four years, the calculation would be divided by 8, or four years of nominations plus wins.

Of course, there are reliable entertainment awards thought leaders like Erik Anderson in the predictions space who are not part of the Gold Derby circle. Anderson is a recommended pundit to follow and if the founder of AwardsWatch had the data available to crunch and include, it would be counted here.

The omissions

To determine the top 5 pundits over the last 5 years, we require a minimum four-year track record of data. Therefore, on this basis, Clayton Davis (Variety) Hanh Nguyen (Salon) do not qualify.

In the highly commended category: Ben Travers Critic & Deputy Editor, TV for IndieWire. Picture courtesy of imdb.com/name/nm12633120/

The highly commended top 3

Highly commended Emmy Awards predictions experts, coming outside the final five:

• Pete Hammond (Deadline) 65.17%

• Anne Thompson (IndieWire) 63.94%

• Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby) 61.88%

The final 5: Gold Derby Emmys pundits from the last 5 years

Raise your glasses to the above top performers, and bow your deepest bow to the below top 5 Gold Derby Emmys pundits of the last 5 years.

#5 Ben Travers (IndieWire) 65.23%

At last year’s Emmys, Ben Travers ranked equal first with Wilson Morales, with a nominations predictions accuracy of 75%.

The TV Critic and Deputy Editor at IndieWire has consistently performed at a high level in Emmys predictions punditry over the last five years.

#4 Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) 65.46%

The film critic for Rolling Stone since 1989, Peter Travers ranked 5th in our best ever predictions rankings for the Oscars.

Travers frequently punches out awards prediction accuracy close to 70% and can be relied upon for consistency.

#3 Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) 66.22%

Editor, President and Founder of Gold Derby, Tom O'Neil achieved the highest predictions accuracy at last year’s Emmys with a score of 75%.

In the previous year, O'Neil topped the class again with a nominations accuracy over 75%

#2 Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV) 66.84%

Founder and Editor at BlackFilmandTV.com, Morales is the best in the business with Oscars predictions.

Clearly a gifted predictions pundit, Morales ranked first for Emmys nominations in 2022 and consistently ranks in the top echelon of Gold Derby’s experts.

The Queen of Emmy predictions: Joyce Eng (left) with Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby's Editor, President and Founder. Picture courtesy of Gold Derby.

#1 Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) 67.69%

All hail the Queen of Emmys predictions, Joyce Eng, who is almost 1% higher than second placed Wilson Morales.

If ever you were entering a TV awards pub quiz, Eng would be your gun for hire. With an encyclopedic database of entertainment awards knowledge, Eng has frequently zigged when the consensus has zagged.

Eng predicted the 2024 Golden Globes TV winners with 100% accuracy. In 2021, the Senior Editor at Gold Derby predicted 78% of Emmys winners, which was a margin almost 10% greater than the second best predictor.