S405 podcast: with 2 consecutive days of entertainment awards, the betting menu is packed with over 20 delicious profit making opportunities
The 2024 Critics' Choice Awards will further illuminate the Academy Awards path, with timing important for early profit making.
It’s a unicorn two days of betting action. Don’t miss this massive episode.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Original Screenplay - The Holdovers
It failed to land a screenplay nomination at the Golden Globes, however, this price is too big to ignore and Barbie’s $1.37 favouritism cannot be trusted.
Medium conviction.
$3.75 Sportsbet - The Holdovers
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Actor - Bradley Cooper
One more throw at the stumps for Bradley Cooper and his campaign. The star of Maestro failed to land a blow at the Golden Globes, however, this more American voting body should favour his performance more and Irish actor Cillian Murphy’s performance less.
If Cooper doesn’t hit at these awards, his path to the Oscars will be more difficult as the likes of Paul Giamatti surge.
Cooper is rated almost a 40% probability, which converts into a market edge over 20%.
Medium conviction.
$3.25 Sportsbet - Bradley Cooper
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Movie Made for Television - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
Highly favoured by reliable TV awards predictions pundits.
Small conviction.
$6.50 Sportsbet - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Comedy Series - The Bear
The casting comedy win last week was a positive sign that The Bear can claim victory over nearest rival Ted Lasso: over the last 10 years 7/10 have matched from Comedy Casting to Comedy Series win.
Medium conviction.
$2.50 Unibet - The Bear
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Ebon Moss-Bachrach
James Marsden and Phil Dunster have been solidly backed when they were at 17-1 and 26-1 odds in July.
For safety, and caution that The Bear is likely to garner Emmys love, Ebon Moss-Bachrach must also be in the mix of the three performers to win this.
Medium conviction.
$3.50 Sportsbet - Ebon Moss-Bachrach
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Drama Series - The White Lotus
Is a miracle on the cards for Mike White’s The White Lotus? I’m prepared to ask the question based on The White Lotus winning drama casting at the Emmys last week.
Over the last 10 years, 6/10 or 60% of Drama Series winners have matched with a casting win.
Small conviction.
$13 Unibet - The White Lotus
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series - Christina Applegate, Natasha Lyonne
Previously backing Rachel Brosnahan in July at $4.33, this is a strike against Abbott Elementary and loading the pockets with two other underrated contenders.
Small conviction.
$9.00 Unibet - Christina Applegate
$21.00 Unibet - Natasha Lyonne
44th Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Picture - Ghosted, Expend4bles, Shazam! Fury of the Gods
It’s time to bet against Big Shark, a bet that I recommended that in July. Tommy Wiseau’s horror thriller is underseen, and is a strong chance of missing a Razzies nomination.
We look to other underrated contenders, high profile titles with big budgets, poor commercial returns and critically punched down.
Watch on The Exorcist: Believer, Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Mercy, Johnny & Clyde - all of whom are not currently listed on betting markets but are stinkers that could turn a profit.
Small conviction.
$19.00 Sportsbet - Ghosted
$17.00 Sportsbet - Expend4bles
$17.00 Sportsbet - Shazam! Fury of the Gods
96th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Holdovers
Based on the Golden Globes, betting markets have reacted with stupidity on Anatomy of a Fall being the frontrunner to win this category.
My ratings have The Holdovers a 50% probability or 2-1 odds to win. The current odds on offer are a 38% edge in betting favour and must be consumed with urgency.
Medium to high conviction.
$2.75 Sportsbet - The Holdovers
96th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – Oppenheimer
Awards precursor signs point to a strong Oscars showing for Christopher Nolan’s team.
This is a 55% probability or $1.82 odds to win, and like The Holdovers original screenplay bet, is an edge of 21% that must be in the betting bank.
Medium conviction.
$2.20 Sportsbet - Oppenheimer
Max Renn
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti
This could be the bet of the awards season. The odds cannot be believed.
Medium to high conviction.
$9.00 Sportsbet - Paul Giamatti
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Picture - Killers of the Flower Moon
$8.50 Sportsbet - Killers of the Flower Moon
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Comedy Series - The Bear
The Bear is too popular and this price should be shorter.
$2.50 Unibet - The Bear
Tony Coca-Cola
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Picture - Killers of the Flower Moon
As I have written earlier, there is a Critics' Choice Awards precursor crossover and correlation that must be highly considered: Oppenheimer has 10 regional critic wins, while Killers of the Flower Moon has 9 wins.
Worth a play at that price.
$8.50 Sportsbet - Killers of the Flower Moon
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Acting Ensemble - Killers of the Flower Moon
$11.00 Sportsbet - Killers of the Flower Moon (now into $6.00, odds published here current as at time of podcast recording on January 14th)
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Original Screenplay - Past Lives, The Holdovers
Bet on them both, it’s a good package deal.
$6.50 Sportsbet - Past Lives
$3.75 Sportsbet - The Holdovers
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction
Over performed at SAG nominations. Great price.
$5.50 Sportsbet - American Fiction
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Comedy Series - The Bear
Gold Derby has The Bear winning in combined odds, by about 4 votes to 1.
$2.50 Unibet - The Bear
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series - Rachel Brosnahan, Christina Applegate
This is a play against Abbott Elementary, which I am predicting will have a lonely awards night
$4.00 Unibet - Rachel Brosnahan
$9.00 Unibet - Christina Applegate
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Ebon Moss-Bachrach, James Marsden
Another positive package deal, and likely to go to either actors
$2.50 Sportsbet - James Marsden
$3.50 Sportsbet - Ebon Moss-Bachrach
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie - Ray Liotta
Backing the sympathy vote.
$10.00 TAB - Ray Liotta
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Elizabeth Debicki
$17.00 TAB - Elizabeth Debicki
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie - Steven Yeun
$2.50 TAB - Steven Yeun
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti
Ridiculous price that must be punished for The Holdovers lead, who is risen in the rankings to win this category.
$9.00 Sportsbet - Paul Giamatti (price correct at time of the podcast, however, now best available is $7.00 at TAB).
96th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – Past Lives
Only 5/11 Golden Globes screenplay winners have gone on to win the Oscar.
Anatomy of the Fall won the screenplay and bookies have overreacted.
Past Lives is great value.
$3.00 Sportsbet - Past Lives