S404 podcast: 18 gravy making opportunities across the 2024 Oscars, Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards
A smorgasbord of bets to satiate your gambling appetite, beginning with the 2024 Golden Globes on Sunday.
In this monster episode, we align on the Oscar winning prospects of Lily Gladstone while we cautiously examine what’s hot for the reborn Golden Globes.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti
Last week I wrote that Giamatti was a best bet at 9-1 odds. The star of The Holdovers still remains a medium conviction play at odds that are too big to pass.
Giamatti is rated a 25% probability or 4-1 odds to win, and 8-1 odds represent a 100% market edge.
Medium conviction.
$8.00 TAB - Paul Giamatti
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Lily Gladstone
When news broke in In September that Gladstone was competing in the Best Actress race, it was a strong bet recommendation at 6-1 odds.
Our position has not wavered, with all three of the LCWTA team bullish on the star of Killers of the Flower Moon going all the way to Oscars glory.
Emma Stone in Poor Things has not moved markets, as I expected. Gladstone is well positioned here.
High conviction.
$2.25 Bet365 - Lily Gladstone
96th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor - Ryan Gosling
The Barbie star is not as far away from frontrunner Robert Downey Jr. as entertainment pundits predict.
Medium conviction.
$4.33 Bet365 - Ryan Gosling
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama – Bradley Cooper
Markets have still not correctly priced this and remains a golden opportunity.
Medium to high conviction.
$2.25 Sportsbet - Bradley Cooper
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy - Paul Giamatti
American Fiction’s campaign has faded in recent weeks, and the love for good guy Giamatti should convert into a Globes win and accelerated momentum for his Oscar campaign
Medium to high conviction.
$2.00 Sportsbet - Paul Giamatti
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television - Meryl Streep
Nominated a record 30 times by Golden Globes voters, the Only Murders in the Building star is is well favoured to add another trophy to the Streep household.
Medium conviction.
$1.65 Sportsbet - Meryl Streep
Max Renn
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Lily Gladstone
This continues to be a high conviction bet.
$2.25 Bet365 - Lily Gladstone
Tony Coca-Cola
29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti
Giamatti is likely to win the Golden Globe on Sunday, and this victory should influence the Critics' Choice vote, which is open at the same time.
Medium conviction.
$6.00 Sportsbet - Paul Giamatti
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy - Barbie
Poor Things has not been dominating the conversation since its release last month, and the Barbie price is a little too long.
Small to medium conviction.
$2.40 TAB - Barbie
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Non-English Language Motion Picture - Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives will be perceived as being too American for this category, so betting on a film that is more international.
Small to medium conviction.
$3.25 Sportsbet - Anatomy of a Fall
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture - Ryan Gosling
A Barbie sweep could be on the cards, and in that pink bomb, an upset win for Gosling.
Small conviction.
$5.00 Sportsbet - Ryan Gosling
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture - Danielle Brooks
This is a big performance with singing and dancing that could see a breakthrough for this category and stall the momentum of Da'Vine Joy Randolph.
Small conviction.
$4.50 Unibet - Danielle Brooks
81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Original Score - Robbie Robertson
Robertson is a better shot than these odds indicate.
Small conviction.
$10.00 Sportsbet - Robbie Robertson
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Barbie
Gerwig’s film has hit the unusual combination of achieving critical and public adoration and nominations records.
Small conviction.
$17.00 Neds or Ladbrokes - Barbie
96th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – Past Lives
The trend from the last few years has been that the winner is dominated by personal autobiographical stories. Past Lives meets this criteria.
High conviction. I am going very deep.
$2.75 Sportsbet - Past Lives
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti
The Domingo train has derailed, and its time to jump on board the Giamatti express.
Medium conviction.
$8.00 TAB - Paul Giamatti
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Lily Gladstone
There has not been the explosion of momentum in Emma Stone’s Poor Things performance. Gladstone has got this.
Bet on the liberal guilt with high conviction.
$2.25 Bet365 - Lily Gladstone
96th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress - Rachel McAdams
Favour for the performance in Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret has been rising. The angle here is to bet for the nomination. If McAdams lands a nomination, her odds will reduce and you should be able to cash out for a profit.
Small conviction.
$51.00 Bet365 - Rachel McAdams