Critic crossover revisited

Do those that win the most regional critics’ awards go on to win the Critics Choice Award?

Last year, I wrote about the potential for significant (and profitable) crossover between the Critics Choice Awards and all the regional film critic group awards.

Turns out, there is a decent link in some categories, but not in others, regardless of odds or Gold Derby rankings.

Over the past five years:

• Picture – 4/5 regional critic award leaders went on to win the Critics Choice Award

• Director - 5/5

• Actor - 0/5

• Actress - 1/5

• Supporting actor - 2/5 

• Supporting actress - 3/5

• Animated feature - 5/5

• International feature - 4/5

(We don’t look at the writing categories, as most regionals just have one screenplay category, not two.)

We’ve still got two more weeks of potential data to come in (so check back closer to the date), but at this stage, the leaders are:

• Picture – Killers of the Flower Moon

• Director – Nolan

• Actor – Murphy

• Actress – Gladstone

• Supporting actor – Robert Downey Jr.

• Supporting actress – Randolph

• Animated feature – Spider-Man – Across the Spider-Verse

• International feature – Anatomy of a Fall

29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Picture - Killers of the Flower Moon

I’m happy to bet on Killers of the Flower Moon right now, as its odds are good enough and the data is strong, but I’ll wait a week or two before going harder on others.

Medium conviction.

$4.33 Sportsbet - Killers of the Flower Moon

29th Critics' Choice Awards, Film - Best Actor - Paul Giamatti

A little something on Giamatti too, just because his momentum is rising.

Small conviction.

$6.00 Sportsbet - Paul Giamatti