2024 Golden Globes best bets: a triangle of caution meets value

As a smooth sea never made a skilful sailor, version 2.0 of the Golden Globes must be treated with betting caution.

The remade organisation has increased the size and diversity of its voting group, and as such, there is an uncertain track record of which way their votes will flow. Nevertheless, here are two value plays that have been underestimated by markets makers.

81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama – Bradley Cooper

Cillian Murphy appears to be the internet’s favourite, with a push for the Irish actor on Film Twitter, and a push against his Golden Globes main contender, Bradley Cooper.

While Maestro won’t be scaling the box office and cultural heights of Oppenheimer, Cooper’s performance is more transformative, and more awards baity when compared with Murphy’s.

The incentive of this year’s Golden Globes broadcast cannot be underestimated. The awards ceremony needs to please the masses, it needs to deliver positive TV ratings to secure its future. Cooper’s star power is a bigger drawcard than the Oppenheimer actor, and I’m betting that Globes voters want to see him delivering a victory speech more.

At time of writing, 8 of 9 Gold Derby experts have the Maestro actor and director in top spot.

Cooper’s win probability is calculated at 50% or 2-1 odds. Priced at $2.50 by Bet365, this is a 25% betting edge.

Medium conviction.

$2.50 Bet365 - Bradley Cooper

81st Golden Globe Awards - Best Actress in a Television Series - Drama – Sarah Snook

Expect a big haul for all involved in the final season of Succession at the Golden Globes.

Australian actress Sarah Snook is assured of adding one more trophy to the cabinet, and Sportsbet have undercooked her odds. Rated a 70% win probability, or $1.43, betting on Snook can be executed with medium to high conviction.

$1.66 Sportsbet - Sarah Snook