Good guy, good role, good film: 5 reasons why Paul Giamatti is the stealth challenger in the Best Actor race
While the Best Actor Oscars conversation focuses on Bradley Cooper and Cillian Murphy as the two to beat for the 2024 Academy Awards, Paul Giamatti’s campaign is sneakily gaining ground.
There are five compelling reasons why the trigger on the betting gun must be pulled now on Paul Giamatti, everyone’s favourite cranky yet loveable Uncle.
#1 The narrative
The power of the story, the comeback feel good factor loomed large at last year’s Oscars. Brendan Fraser’s tears compelled voters to give the star of The Whale the Best Actor prize, while it was long tenure in the film industry that helped propel Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis to Oscars victory.
Giamatti boasts a career spanning three decades. The actor’s cabinet is filled with acting trophies, except for a little gold man. Sideways was acclaimed, however, Giamatti was snubbed.
The narrative says that he is due.
#2 The likeability trifecta
Sasha Stone’s likeability index is a simple and valuable compass when considering the weight of a performers campaign prospects:
1 Likeability of person
2 Likeability of role
3 Likeability of film
Giamatti meets all three criteria. He’s such a loveable real life guy, that in the last week I believe this shifted the vote from the likes of Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter. It cannot be a coincidence that Feinberg recently interviewed Giamatti, was won over by his goodness and has positioned the actor in top ranking for Best Actor.
The reach and awareness via more interviews from Giamatti will further amplify the goodwill fairy dust, and we can expect up ranking of the actor in the final five.
#3 Golden Globes pathway
Giamatti is favoured to win the Best Actor Comedy or Musical statue at the Golden Globes next month. Consider the televised speech, the emotion, the goodwill and momentum gained on the path to the Oscars in March 2024.
On Gold Derby, Giamatti commands 78% of the vote from experts who believe he will win Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor.
With probabilty favouring a win Golden Globes win, we can expect an odds correction, further compounding the opportunity of betting odds mispricing.
#4 The statistical tailwinds
Since 2009, which was the start of the preferential voting system for Best Picture, in 12 of the last 13 years (or 92%), a Best Actor win has correlated with a nomination of Best Picture.
This bodes well for the Giamatti and The Holdovers camp, where a Best Picture nomination is extremely likely.
#5 Mispricing spells opportunity
In our weekly Oscar ratings, a secret sauce is applied to stock up and stock down of all Oscars contenders.
Bradley Cooper’s Maestro debut on Netflix did not convert into a ratings boost. Compiled to evaluate probability statistical value, the major ratings move belonged to Giamatti. Compared against the odds by Sportsbet, the mispricing of Giamatti is clear:
Cooper 67 (down 7 points compared to last week), 2-1 odds
Murphy 62, 2-1
Giamatti 51 (20 points gain), 8-1
Wright 24, 11-1
DiCaprio 15 (11 up) 7-1
Domingo 7 (17 down), 15-1
DiCaprio is clinging onto the fifth slot, but the bookmaker has priced the star of Killers of the Flower Moon as a third ranked contender. While The Holdovers leading man has steamed into third ranking with a price that is not reflective of the actor’s probability.
At this stage of the awards season, Giamatti is rated a 25% probability or 4-1 odds to win Best Actor. Currently served up at 9-1 odds, this is a gift 125% edge in the bettor’s favour.
That’s an edge that must be pocketed immediately with medium conviction.
$9.00 TAB