The sleepy underdog

This year’s box office champion could also be this awards season’s underdog.

I’m just sleeping

Earlier this week, The Professor posed an interesting question via a X poll: the past two years have seen sleeper titles overtake the bookie/industry favourites to win Best Picture. So which film best fits the sleeper brief this year?

Consensus was split on the poll between The Holdovers, American Fiction, and Poor Things, while Barbie received the lowest vote count.

But I think there’s an argument to be made that the biggest film of the year is actually the one no-one’s talking about. Somehow, Barbie has a strong case to be this season’s underdog.

It’s the biggest financial success of the year

Box office certainly doesn’t equal quality, or even general audience acceptance (Avatar: The Way of Water is sitting #3 on all time worldwide B.O.!?) But The Academy certainly thinks otherwise. They’re desperate to see the popular films feature on game night. And Barbie isn’t just popular; it’s a phenomenon, reaching demographics no-one thought possible for a bluntly-political movie about a child’s doll. The degree of difficulty is far higher than Top Gun: Maverick’s B.O. effort last year. Nobody expected this. A staggering achievement.

It’s one of the biggest critical successes of the year

Top 10 Lists are presently being wheeled out by critics everywhere, and IndieWire has helpfully collated 158 different lists into one super list, revealing the best of the best of the year. Barbie is #8, above Maestro, The Holdovers, and American Fiction, all of which (at most bookies) are shorter in odds for Best Picture. (It’s equal 5th on the Sight and Sound list also.)

It’s breaking nomination records

Yes, it helps when you’ve got three different songs in the mix, with big name artists behind them. And no, it’s not really winning anything so far.

But its domination shouldn’t be ignored; it’s showing up, repeatedly, in almost every category.

It’s not a slog to watch

I don’t care how long a film is, but plenty of people do. So to have a contender that’s sub-two hours (and also isn’t a dour assessment of humanity) is a big, big plus. Plus, look at all the pretty people! The clothes! The colours! Eating candy is far more fun than eating vegetables.

Barbie seemingly has it all. So why don’t the bookies agree? Surely it should be top five?

I still think it’s too uneven, and even too divisive, to win. But it’s definitely undervalued, and worth throwing something on.

Small conviction - $17.00 Neds/Ladbrokes