How to buy a wonderful company at a fair price

As the awards season heats up, the bookmaker kitchen has undercooked three strong contenders with big betting market edges.

96th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Bradley Cooper

Of all the betting Oscars seasons that bewilders most, the failure of A Star Is Born to grab gold beyond winning Best Song hurts most. History has not been kind to Rami Malek’s portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. But on any given Sunday, Malek has an Oscar Best Actor trophy, while Cooper has none.

Hopefully the lessons learnt from the underwhelming awards campaign performance by team Bradley Cooper in 2018-19 will produce Academy Awards favour in Maestro.

The probability of Cooper winning Best Actor is aided by:

• Cillian Murphy’s questionable campaigning ability

• Maestro is underseen and under the radar. This will change in a fortnight from now, when it hits Netflix

• A narrative of being due, with nine nominations and no win

While I won’t be divulging the secret sauce of this recipe, the Best Actor ratings for the main contenders looks like this:

1. Cooper - 74 points

2. Murphy - 64

3. Giamatti - 27

4. Wright - 24

5. Domingo - 24

6. DiCaprio - 21

Betting markets, on the other hand, still have Murphy as strong favourite. This will change when Maestro hits general release.

In the inaugural year of Lights Camera What’s the Action’s podcast, we were bullish on Kate Winslet winning the Emmy for Mare of Easttown. Anya Taylor-Joy was the bookmaker favourite, while Winslet was north of 4-1 odds.

At the time, it was akin to Warren Buffett’s quote, “it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Winslet won, and this is a similar window of investment opportunity. Cooper is a wonderful company at a fair price. This price will not last.

High conviction.

$3.25 TAB - Bradley Cooper

Academy Awards – Best Supporting Actor – Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

There’s no denying the passion behind Barbie.

Oppenheimer ticks so many boxes this Oscars season, and Downey Jr. has the winnable package driven by a career narrative.

Bookmakers have undercooked the probability of Gosling being a challenger, however. Gosling too has a strong body of work, and has Oscars pundits like Anne Thompson, Clayton Davis and Erik Anderson putting the Canadian actor in top spot.

The ratings highlight how close Gosling is:

1. Downey Jr. - 69

2. Gosling - 62

3. Ruffalo - 41

4. de Niro - 33

5. Melton - 19
   

RDJ is priced about right, while Gosling is a 38% chance or odds of $2.63 or +162.5 to win. Currently at odds $4.50 or +350, this represents a 71% betting edge.

Bet on Ken, medium conviction.

$4.50 Bet365 - Ryan Gosling

Academy Awards – Best Supporting Actress – Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Betting against the recency bias that is overhyping all involved in The Color Purple. This includes Danielle Brooks, who is priced as favourite in some books.

Mirroring the Murphy Cooper scenario, it is Randolph who leads in the ratings, however, Brooks is the deemed betting favourite.

1. Randolph - 70

2. Brooks - 60

3. Blunt - 43

4. Foster - 29

5. Moore - 15

I have Randolph rated a 45% chance or odds of $2.22. Currently priced at $2.62, this is a 18% market edge.

Noteworthy that Sportsbet have Randolph priced at $1.57, while Bet365 is much juicier.

Not since the year 2008, when Tilda Swinton emerged as the surprise winner for Best Supporting Actress, has an outsider won. For the last 15 years, the betting favourite wins this category. Don’t miss this price before it shortens.

Medium conviction.

$2.62 Bet365 - Da'Vine Joy Randolph