S403 podcast: can Annette Bening go the distance in a film that does not, and how does the Best Picture race look with newcomer Killers of the Flower Moon?
According to bookmakers, the Oppenheimer frontrunner train leads across three major categories, however mispricing and emerging contenders present juicy opportunities .
With major nominations landing next month, in episode three we examine the rise of American Fiction and how to position for betting profits.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture - American Fiction
Being the Best Picture frontrunner is a challenging pace to maintain. By December in the last two years, The Power of the Dog and The Fablemans were short odds favourites to win the big prize and were overtaken by eventual winners CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
So what we are looking at now with Oppenheimer being the bookmaker favourite could look different on game day. For this reason, look beyond Christopher Nolan's biopic and focus on a title that is quietly gathering momentum: American Fiction.
It's horrendously priced in the punter's favour by Bet365 (Sportsbet have the same at 7-1) and must be punished.
Low to medium conviction
$21.00 Bet365 - American Fiction
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Bradley Cooper
Hopefully the lessons learnt from the underwhelming awards campaign performance by team Bradley Cooper with A Star Is Born will produce Academy Awards favour in Maestro.
The probability of Cooper winning Best Actor is aided by:
Cillian Murphy’s questionable campaigning ability
Maestro is underseen and under the radar
A narrative of being due, with nine nominations and no win
Medium conviction.
$4.33 Sportsbet - Bradley Cooper
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Emma Stone
There’s Lily Gladstone vs Emma Stone, and every other actress is a good distance behind. The 2024 Oscars race could be a shootout similar to Yeoh and Blanchett.
In September, we recommended Stone’s knockout turn in Poor Things at 4-1 odds.
With the movie releasing next month, expect to see a shakeup in the pricing of Best Actress and Stone becoming the outright favourite.
It’s back to the same betting well, even at shorter odds.
Medium to high conviction.
$2.50 Sportsbet - Emma Stone
Max Renn
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Lily Gladstone
Until Poor Things releases in December, this is a high conviction bet.
$2.60 Bet365 - Lily Gladstone
Tony Coca-Cola
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture - American Fiction
This could be the passion pick for Academy Awards voters and is simmering nicely in the background.
This price is too tasty to pass up.
$21.00 Bet365 - American Fiction
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Colman Domingo
There is no real frontrunner in Best Actor. Watch out for the charm offensive by Domingo. The end of the actor’s strike will be a massive campaign boost.
$3.60 bet365 - Colman Domingo
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone
Conviction is strong that it will be either Stone or Gladstone who win.
$2.50 Sportsbet - Emma Stone
$2.60 Bet365 - Lily Gladstone