S402 podcast: American Fiction arrives with TIFF winds blowing and Lily Gladstone throws a hand grenade into the Best Actress Oscars race
Oppenheimer shortens to unbackable odds across most Academy Awards betting markets, but there are opportunities elsewhere.
The second episode of season four unpacks the hits and misfires from film festivals and the new order of Academy Awards betting.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture - The Holdovers
The betting thesis here is simple: take cover.
The consensus around Alexander Payne’s latest film is that it is a top 5 Best Picture contender.
The film has been received positively, and it could just be the unexpected title that pops when the awards season starts in January.
But largely, this is a bet on the cover if previous best bets including Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon or Oppenheimer lose.
The odds are too big, and must be taken in case any holes emerge.
$21.00 TAB - The Holdovers
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - James Marsden
When it comes to awards betting, you don’t have to like where your money goes.
Jury Duty is awful, but James Marsden’s performance has the actor secretly ranked as the frontrunner.
We backed Marsden in July at 17-1. Even today, it’s a steal at 5-1 odds.
$5.00 Sportsbet - James Marsden
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Hannah Waddingham
Waddingham delivers some big baity awards moments in the final season of Ted Lasso.
Currently third line in betting, the actress should be second favourite.
$5.00 Sportsbet - Hannah Waddingham
Max Renn
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture - American Fiction
The TIFF People’s Choice winner could be the little engine that could.
It will have to upset Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, but this is a reasonable value play.
$8.00 Sportsbet - American Fiction
Tony Coca-Cola
96th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Colman Domingo
Even without a Best Picture nomination to anchor and enhance Domingo’s chances, this is a high conviction bet.
$3.40 bet365 - Colman Domingo
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Annette Bening
Stone and Gladstone are in the lead for this race, however, the overdue narrative coupled with Bening’s role in the current acting strike enhances her prospects.
If Jamie Lee Curtis can do it, so can Bening.
$8.00 Sportsbet - Annette Bening
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series - Kieran Culkin
Back to the drinking well for this bet. Culkin is the overwhelming favourite on Gold Derby, this is still is a juicy price.
High conviction
$1.91 Sportsbet - Kieran Culkin
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Comedy Series - The Bear
Gold Derby has The Bear ahead of Ted Lasso and the comedy series contender should be shorter in the odds.
Small to medium conviction.
$3.00 Unibet - The Bear