Beautiful gravy and bloodshed: betting review and profit on turnover transparency at the 2023 Primetime Emmy Awards

Between us three betting experts, if you backed one or more of the big three (Succession, Beef or The Bear), rivers of gravy flowed.

For those who were on the other side of the big shows that Emmys voters smiled upon, it was a less fruitful enterprise.

The Professor

Emmys profit on turnover (POT) -41%

The Emmys dominance of Beef, at the time of betting on Emmys in mid 2023, was a surprise. But the writing was on the wall with Golden Globes January love of the Steven Yeun and Ali Wong limited series.

Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story broke viewing records for Netflix, however, this translated into only one Emmys win for Niecy Nash.

My bets were mostly contrarian, with the murder thriller to beat Beef at 6-1 odds. Other angles that zigged while the market zagged:

• The Bear $2.50 (won)

• The White Lotus $13

• Brosnahan $4.33 or Applegate $9 or Lyonne $21

• Waddingham $7

• Danes $3.75

• Chastain $4

• Marsden $21 Dunster $26 or Moss-Bachrach $3 (won)

• Strong $4 or Pascal $11 or Odenkirk $4.25
  

Marsden actually closed as market favourite at $2.75, however, it was the momentum of The Bear’s Moss-Bachrach who won.

Wins for the day included The Bear paying $2.50 followed by Moss-Bachrach in the same show at $3.

Overall, the main takeaway: is there too much TV for Emmys voters? Ted Lasso, George & Tammy, Fleishman Is in Trouble and The Last of Us were shut out. It would appear that they were not seen (enough), and ran into the buzzsaw aggregate of the more popular shows of Beef, Succession and The Bear.

It was an expensive lesson to default to the popular rather than the show and performances that are outside the populist core.

Max Renn

Emmys profit on turnover (POT) +100%

Keeping it simple paid dividends, with three Emmys bets:

1. The Bear $2.50

2. Pedro Pascal $8.00

3. The Last of Us $9.00

The highest conviction bet (and largest outlay) was on The Bear and delivered a stunning 100% profit on turnover.

Tony Coca-Cola

Emmys profit on turnover (POT) +7%

The largest betting commitment was on Kieran Culkin to win Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

This winning bet washed out losses from contrarian bets:

• Culkin $2-3 odds (largest commitment) - won

• Debicki $17

• The Bear $2.50 - won

• Yeun $3 - won

• Waddingham $7

• Danes $3.75

• Chastain $4

• Brosnahan $4 or Applegate $9

• Marsden $2.50 or Moss-Bachrach $3.50 - won

• Liotta $10

• The White Lotus $11

• Seehorn $5

• Jury Duty $26

• Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story $6

• Mazino $17 or Lee $34