Overcooked and too much sledgehammer: how betting against the current frontrunner presents an alternative opportunity in the Best Documentary race
The wisdom of crowds predicts 20 Days in Mariupol to run away with the Oscar, but this is a category worthy of deeper betting scrutiny.
Here are 5 reasons why there is a rival contender.
#1 Too much could be a turn off
20 Days in Mariupol is vital viewing. But its cinéma vérité could be too much sledgehammer for the senses. The Ukrainian war brutality could be too much for voters, and some may not last until the film’s 20th day. There is the scenario in which many voters tap out and instead choose other options.
Over the last ten years at the Academy Awards in the category of Best Documentary, there have been 50 contenders, with 10 winners. There have been six documentaries with war as the central subject.
2013 - Dirty Wars
2014 - Last Days in Vietnam
2017 - Last Men in Aleppo
2018 - Of Fathers and Sons
2019 - The Cave and For Sama
Four of the six titles were stories based in the Syria conflict, while the the remaining two were focused on war involvement from the United States. Out of this six, how many won? Zero.
The four Syrian documentaries also employ cinéma vérité and some viewing is challenging. These thematic statistics are a negative for the Oscar winning prospects of 20 Days in Mariupol.
Currently at odds of $1.30, the implied bookmaker probability is 77%. This is overcooked and must be avoided by bettors.
#2 The unlikelihood of going back to the well
In the Best Documentary race, timing is important. If a documentary is topical, if it connects with the macro trends or a social political movement, AMPAS voters have frequently voted it to the front.
The invasion of Ukraine was a world media events and the exposé of Russian politics by Navalny augured well with the voters who pushed the documentary to the front at the 2023 Academy Awards.
With the long view of the last ten years, never has AMPAS returned to the theme of each winner, and instead vote for a variation and different topic the following year.
Last year’s Best Documentary, Navalny, is thematically similar to the lead contender this year. Based on the ten year pattern, voters are unlikely to return to the same well and topic.
Year 2013 - 20 Feet from Stardom - US, music, biography
Year 2014 - Citizenfour - US, spying, war themes
Year 2015 - Amy - UK, music, biography
Year 2016 - O.J.: Made in America - US, biography
Year 2017 - Icarus - Russia, sport, drugs
Year 2018 - Free Solo - US, biography, sport
Year 2019 - American Factory - US, China, culture, work
Year 2020 - My Octopus Teacher - South Africa, Biography, nature
Year 2021 - Summer of Soul - US, music, biography
Year 2022 - Navalny - Russia, biography
Year 2023 - ?
#3 Bet on an unsettled category
At the 2021 and 2023 Academy Awards, Best Documentary betting markets were in flux.
Time opened as a strong favourite, but was steamrolled by My Octopus Teacher. And last year leading contenders All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Fire of Love were overtaken by Navalny, which opened in the third line betting with odds north of 10-1.
This is a market that is still in flux.
#4 Eyes on high Directors Guild of America Awards nomination correlation
The Best Documentary Oscar winner has emerged from the Documentary nominations ten of the last eleven years at the Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA).
Only two DGA nominees crossed over as nominees at this year’s Oscars: Bobi Wine: The People's President and 20 Days in Mariupol.
#5 Follow early groupthink signals
One of the drivers of Oscars predictions consensus is Gold Derby. For pundits who haven’t yet made up their mind it steers judgement. For predictors who have not seen some of the contenders, they copy their peers’ predictions. The predictions website becomes an echo chamber of groupthink, and eventual winners resemble a self fulfilling prophecy.
There are early signs of reliable pundits who are thinking differently about Best Documentary, who are not on the 20 Days in Mariupol bandwagon. Their choice, instead, is Bobi Wine: The People's President.
If the groupthink tailwinds gather momentum, now is the time to pull the betting trigger on the Ugandan documentary to win.
Small to medium conviction.
Bobi Wine: The People's President $15 Unibet or Bet365