3 reasons why Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will not see an Oscars Best Picture nomination

Oscars predictions pundits are frothing at the mouth at the prospects for the latest Spiderman instalment grabbing a Best Picture nomination. Here are 3 reasons why the frothiness presents a strong contrarian Oscars bet.

#1 The Academy seldom votes an animated feature into the Best Picture category

Only 3 times in the history of the Academy Awards has an animated story nabbed a Picture nomination. Beauty and the Beast, Up and Toy Story 3 have belonged to this elite club, and it hasn’t happened since 2010.

When Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio released to last year, we saw the same fever of Best Picture contention conversation. It was short lived, and nowhere in sight for the eventual ten Best Picture nominations.

Shrek and WALL-E were adored by critics but equally missed a Best Picture nomination.

#2 The Oscars race is a marathon and Spider-man will not have the legs for the race

The Best Picture nomination hyerbole is short term fizz in a bottle.

Over the stretch and length of the awards season, consider the many strong titles still to be released. All jostling for position, all eventually squeezing out these frothy Spider-Verse soothsayers.

#3 Trust the mathematics of probability and edge

Bookmaker Sportsbet’s market of Spider-Man landing a Best Picture nomination is paying $1.44 with a probability conversion of 69%. This is obscenely overcooked.

The other side of the bet is tremendously undercooked, where the bookmaker rates it a 38% chance or $2.62. Yummy.

I rate a no nomination a 70% probability or odds conversion of $1.43.

This represents a 83% price edge in our favour.

When the film disappears from the conversation and finishes its theatrical run, bank on the pop, and lay with medium conviction that the Spider-Man awards cabinet will not stock a Best Picture nomination.

$2.62 Sportsbet - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will not be Nominated for Best Picture