Cannes wrap: beware the post festival glow?

The 2023 Cannes Film Festival has concluded, leaving us with all sorts of optimistic opinions and pessimistic proclamations. But should we take heed of hot takes, or lean into the love?

As we explained in our Academy Awards 2023 debrief, the traditional paradigm of What Films Win Oscars has shifted in a number of ways. And premiere dates have always been a staple of that paradigm.

Common wisdom suggests that films emerging at a September-October festival, before a December-January general release, typically win Best Picture (in an Oscar ceremony usually held around Feb-March.)

Prior to 2021, Telluride Film Festival (September), for example, had screened the eventual Best Picture winner 11/13 years. And that other traditional bellwether, being a nominee in Toronto International Film Festival People's Choice Award (September), has correlated with a Best Picture win 7/10 years (prior to 2021.)

The rationale for this schedule is of course recency bias - voters are more likely to remember films they’ve seen more recently.

Oscar winners Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman are destined to be in the awards conversation with Todd Haynes’ May December.

A reasonable enough argument, and one that has certainly worked successfully for decades past for how to bet on the Oscars. But lately for Academy Awards predictions, it’s not all going to plan: 

2020, Parasite, May 2019 (Cannes) premiere -> February 2020 Oscars = 9 months

2022, CODA, January 2021 (Sundance) premiere -> March 2022 Oscars = 14 months 

2023, Everything Everywhere All at Once, March 2022 (SXSW) premiere -> March 2023 Oscars = 12 months

And that’s just Best Picture winners. There’s also been Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (Cannes) – 9 months; Drive My Car (Cannes) – 8 months; Promising Young Woman, The Father, Minari (Sundance) – 15 months.

The paradigm has indeed shifted. The new rule is no rules.

So while basking in an always-warmer-than-reality post-festival glow might instinctively feel dangerously deceptive, the facts show that a later premiere/release date is no longer a factor for Oscar victory and how to bet. For Oscars betting, winners can come from anywhere. Recency bias is certainly real, but far more connected to guild/BAFTA award success (particularly those won during the Oscar voting period.)

Killers of the Flower Moon star Lily Gladstone looms as a strong early bet for Oscar honours. Picture courtesy of Apple TV+

Cannes clues and the Oscars 2024 race

So, did Cannes reveal any true contenders and how to bet on the 2024 Academy Awards?

Killers of the Flower Moon was always going to be a challenger for (at least) Picture/Director/Actor/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress, and strong reviews now seem to back that assessment up.

For Best Actress/Supporting Actress Oscar predictions, perhaps May December could bring nominations for Moore and Portman (two former winners; the Academy loves to re-acknowledge its own.)

And Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest look good for International Film nominations also. (Sandra Hüller for a Best Actress nomination? Maybe, but – as in previous years – that category will again be stacked. Likely a bridge too far for a first-time foreign raider.)

But importantly, there hasn’t seemed to be any balls-out breakouts on the Acting front, no immediate frontrunners presented. (Perhaps Lily Gladstone – a worthwhile early bet candidate, if the markets were open...)

So go ahead and dismiss or embrace any early festival hype at will. It doesn’t matter when your film screens, if it won a prize, got snubbed, peaked too soon, or rolled in late. Just make sure it’s winning big awards during the last week of February 2024.

At this stage, SAG and PGA Awards are presently within that voting week. And a good speech is all it’ll take to get you over the Oscar line.