Early mail: how to bet on the 2023 Emmy Awards
Here are some early statistics, signs and suggestions for how to build a strong betting position on the 2023 Emmy Awards. Plus 3 best bets when nominations are announced on 12 July.
Tony Coca-Cola
Casting Call
Will Monster, George and Tammy, or Black Bird be able to maintain their industry popularity from last year? Or will recency bias lead White House Plumbers, Beef or Dead Ringers to victory?
A solid indicator for Limited Series is Casting: whatever wins Best Casting in a Limited Series goes on to win Best Limited Series 9/10 years. This statistic could give us a significant edge in a highly competitive category.
Seeing double
While Jessica Chastain has an insurmountable lead on Gold Derby (over ten times as many votes as her nearest rival), Rachel Weisz playing dual meaty roles in Dead Ringers ticks many betting boxes.
The good news - Mark Ruffalo won in 2020 for his dual performance in I Know This Much Is True won. The bad news - Ewan McGregor didn’t win for his twin roles in Fargo in 2017.
I’m firmly on the Weisz train, and will be jumping on hard as soon as this market opens.
Rachel Weisz stars in Dead Ringers. The performance ticks many betting boxes. Picture courtesy of Prime Video
Always a bridesmaid?
Will Better Call Saul (0 wins from 46 nominations) FINALLY be rewarded for the final half of its final season? I’ve been burned multiple times before by Goodman & co., but Gold Derby presently has Odenkirk way out in front for the Drama Lead Actor win.
I’ll likely jump on for the last time - I’m pot committed!
And could Rhea Seehorn get up over Jennifer Coolidge? A travesty she hasn’t been rewarded earlier, but Coolidge seems unstoppable.
The sympathy vote
We thought Christina Applegate might snag some sentimental SAG love last year, but it wasn’t to be. She’ll definitely be nominated again, but can she get the win?
It’s a strong field: favourite Brunson, It Girl Ortega, Brosnahan in her final season, and Lyonne coming in hard with Netflix behind her.
If the odds are too good to ignore (as it was with SAG), I’ll jump back on.
The statistics that matter
Comedy Series Writing win = Comedy Series win only 4/10 years. Something to keep an eye on during the telecast, particularly if live betting is available.
Any Acting nomination from same series = Comedy Actress win 10/10 years.
The Supporting categories in Drama Series have some strong correlations:
Drama Supporting Actor
Series nomination/Supp Actor win 7/10
Directing nomination/Supp Actor win 9/10
Writing nomination/Supp Actor win 7/10
Acting (any other) nomination/Supp Actor win 9/10
Drama Supporting Actress
Series nomination/Supp Actress win 10/10
Directing nomination/Supp Actress win 8/10
Writing nomination/Supp Actress win 7/10
Acting (any other) nomination/Supp Actress win 8/10
So, your pick for Drama Supporting Actor/Actress should come from a show that also has nominations in Series, Director, Writing and any other Acting.
The winner of Drama Lead Actor is much more likely to come from a Drama Series nominated show (90%) than the winner of Drama Lead Actress (60%).
It’s very hard to win any major Emmy category in a show’s debut season. The strongest correlation is Drama Lead Actor - 5/10 years; all the others hover between 10-40%. So it doesn’t look good for The Last of Us. Guest Actor Drama looks a lock for Nick Offerman, though.
Finally, the winner of Limited Series Director must also have their show nominated for Series, Writing, and any Acting. This has been true for 10/10 years across all three categories.