2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards, predictions and betting review
The Professor
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards betting summary
4 best bets (3 high conviction, 1 medium conviction)
2 winners
Average odds on winning bets: $1.82
POT: -38%
All bets
Win - Best Hero - Pedro Pascal $1.91
Win - Best Duo - Pedro Pascal & Bella Ramsey $1.72
Loss - Best Performance in a Movie - Austin Butler (Elvis) $4.75
Loss - Best Villain - M3GAN $3.75
Thoughts
Twice in the last 3 months Austin Butler has failed to fill the betting cup. I thought Butler’s Oscar Best Actor nomination would convert into rivers of gold, but in the end, it was Fraser who came out on top.
At the MTV Awards where the public votes on the awards, perhaps it was Elvis that is underlooked and it was the people pleaser of Top Gun: Maverick which boosted Tom Cruise to win the Best Performance in a Movie category.
M3GAN was a stunning loss. A box office and social media success, M3GAN appeared destined to win Best Villain. Elizabeth Olsen secured her third win at the MTV Movie & TV Awards, with her turn in one of those superhero movies. The lesson is not to underestimate the enormity of these franchises.
On the winning front, it was the bankability of The Last of Us which secured betting wins for Best Duo and Best Hero.
At the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder's meeting, Warren Buffett explained value investing: “what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things.”
While the net result was a -38% profit on turnover, the process was sound. The bookmaker who posted dumb odds was punished.
Consider the opening prices versus the closing betting odds.
Austin Butler opened $4.75, closed $1.57
M3GAN opened $3.75, closed $1.57
Pedro Pascal & Bella Ramsey opened $1.72, closed $1.30
Pedro Pascal opened $1.91, closed $1.30
In a simulation run 1,000 times the significant betting edge % will be profitable. It wasn’t to be on this game day, but the process and method was right.
Tony Coca-Cola
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards betting summary
8 best bets (3 high conviction)
4 winners (3/3 or 100% strike rate on high conviction)
Average odds on winning bets: $5.42
POT: 106%
All bets
Win - Best Movie - Scream VI $13
Win - Best Performance in a Show - Jenna Ortega $1.80
Win - Best Hero - Pedro Pascal $1.91
Win - Best Song - Carolina - Taylor Swift $5
Loss - Best Performance in a Show - Selena Gomez $4.50
Loss - Best Show - Stranger Things $4.50 and Wednesday $6.50
Loss - Best Villain - M3GAN $3.75
Thoughts
The Ortega factor proved very lucrative with two wins. She’s far too popular; she had to win more than one. Thought it was going to be Wednesday for Best Show; much happier it was Scream 6 for Best Film with big odds at $13 (final betting markets had it as second betting favourite.)
Pedro Pascal’s opening odds of $1.91 for Best Hero was ridiculous, and duly punished.
The Last of Us dominated with three wins, but strange that Bella Ramsay missed out for Breakthrough Performance.
Stranger Things proved itself still popular, winning two awards. Good to know for its final season next year.