S5E05 podcast: incredible nomination reactions, 14 Oscars and BAFTA skyrocket bets
Shortly after sports books publish markets, the betting landscape is fertile with profit making opportunities
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor - Edward Norton
A Real Pain got what it deserved, with no Best Picture nomination. It’s a poor film that is lucky to secure any awards attention. The Picture snub slightly derails the Culkin trajectory, so taking cover on Norton, who is a strong 2nd spot challenger.
Medium conviction.
Edward Norton $21.00 Sportsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Fernanda Torres
Sony Pictures Classic played the phase 1 campaign brilliantly, landing three Oscars nominations for I’m Still Here.
Torres is climbing and cannot be ignored. The Brazilian actress has an unusual path to Oscar glory, with no BAFTA nor SAG nods.
Low conviction.
Fernanda Torres $13 Neds
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Score - Conclave
Odds are too big for this contender, which is at least a 30% win probability.
Low conviction.
Conclave $6 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Substance
A slam dunk, and Demi Moore should ride this one to a Best Actress Oscar win.
High conviction.
The Substance $1.44 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Film Editing – Emilia Pérez
A category that is more open than bookmakers believe.
AMPAS showed their love for Emilia Pérez.
Low to medium conviction.
Emilia Pérez $17 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
Here’s the opportunity for AMPAS to recognise the unique vision from Coralie Fargeat
Low to medium conviction.
The Substance $15 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Sound – Wicked, A Complete Unknown
Predicting a narrative that will push back against Dune winning this category again, which creates an opening for Wicked and A Complete Unkown.
Low to medium conviction.
Wicked $3.75 Bet365
A Complete Unknown $12 Bet365
78th British Academy Film Awards - Actress – Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Demi Moore
A BAFTA win for MJP would be historic, and there’s a strong chance that BAFTA voters will push the British actress to the front.
Moore’s momentum is also undeniable and must be in the mix.
Medium conviction.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste $4.33 Bet365
Demi Moore $2.10 Bet365
78th British Academy Film Awards - Rising Star – David Jonsson, Marisa Abela
The play is for the Brits to favour their own.
Medium conviction.
David Jonsson $7.50 Bet365
Marisa Abela $2.40 Bet365
78th British Academy Film Awards - Casting – Kneecap, Anora
Both Kneecap and Anora boast new discovery talent that BAFTA favours.
With a nomination haul of 6, Kneecap surely must win something. When markets opened, 26-1 odds for the Irish film was horribly wrong.
Medium conviction.
Kneecap $26 Bet365
Anora $4.50 Bet365