S5E04 podcast: more Oscars betting opportunities plus an exclusive interview with the OscarsModel team
A profitable 2025 Golden Globes present more breadcrumbs on the path to the Academy Awards
In our reviews segment, opinions are divided on Anora, and will A Real Pain become the worst Best Picture nominee since Don’t Look Up?
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
Support for the screenplay by Peter Straughan is strong, with TAB implying a win probability of nearly 90% with odds close to $1.10
Following Conclave’s highly likely screenplay win, the mathematical path for a Best Picture win is statistically enhanced. Over the last 10 years of Oscar Best Picture win history, 71% or 10/14 have also won Original or Adapted screenplay.
Don’t underestimate the papal thriller. It’s a must have on Oscar Sunday. According to my charts, it is still quietly the frontrunner.
Medium conviction
Conclave $6.50 TAB
97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore
Moore’s Golden Globe winning speech and popcorn actress narrative will resonate strongly with AMPAs voters. As we’ve seen in recent years, the comeback or career narrative translates to Oscar glory. The Substance leading actress story could overwhelm the campaign efforts of Mikey Madison.
Moore has surged to top spot in my charts, however, some bookmakers have not priced correctly the win probability here.
Medium to high.
Demi Moore $2.50 TAB
97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet
Close inspection of the back half of the Best Picture contenders shows the surge of A Complete Unknown. The Bob Dylan biopic has timed its run beautifully.
Catching these tailwinds is leading man Timothee Chalamet. The win probability for Chalamet I’d estimate to be 70% which should propel the actor to the lead in favourability on game day.
Grab these odds which will not last. Medium conviction.
Timothee Chalamet $3.50 Bet365
Max Renn
97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore
High conviction.
Demi Moore $2.50 TAB
97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet
Chalamet’ stocks are rising and his campaign zone is hitting the sweet spot with an upcoming SNL appearance.
Timothee Chalamet $3.50 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
An outlier on a film that is gaining momentum.
The Substance $6.50 TAB
Tony Coca-Cola
97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore
This price will not last.
Demi Moore $2.50 TAB
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
An outlier with a play on a film that is gaining momentum.
The Substance $6.50 TAB
97th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – Emilia Perez
Likely to be the leading nominated film when the Academy Awards are announced next week and a challenger to Conclave.
Emilia Perez $15 TAB