S5E04 podcast: more Oscars betting opportunities plus an exclusive interview with the OscarsModel team

A profitable 2025 Golden Globes present more breadcrumbs on the path to the Academy Awards

In our reviews segment, opinions are divided on Anora, and will A Real Pain become the worst Best Picture nominee since Don’t Look Up?

Best bets

The Professor

97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave

Support for the screenplay by Peter Straughan is strong, with TAB implying a win probability of nearly 90% with odds close to $1.10

Following Conclave’s highly likely screenplay win, the mathematical path for a Best Picture win is statistically enhanced. Over the last 10 years of Oscar Best Picture win history, 71% or 10/14 have also won Original or Adapted screenplay.

Don’t underestimate the papal thriller. It’s a must have on Oscar Sunday. According to my charts, it is still quietly the frontrunner.

Medium conviction

Conclave $6.50 TAB

97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore

Moore’s Golden Globe winning speech and popcorn actress narrative will resonate strongly with AMPAs voters. As we’ve seen in recent years, the comeback or career narrative translates to Oscar glory. The Substance leading actress story could overwhelm the campaign efforts of Mikey Madison.

Moore has surged to top spot in my charts, however, some bookmakers have not priced correctly the win probability here.

Medium to high.

Demi Moore $2.50 TAB

97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet

Close inspection of the back half of the Best Picture contenders shows the surge of A Complete Unknown. The Bob Dylan biopic has timed its run beautifully.

Catching these tailwinds is leading man Timothee Chalamet. The win probability for Chalamet I’d estimate to be 70% which should propel the actor to the lead in favourability on game day.

Grab these odds which will not last. Medium conviction.

Timothee Chalamet $3.50 Bet365

Max Renn

97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore

High conviction.

Demi Moore $2.50 TAB

97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet

Chalamet’ stocks are rising and his campaign zone is hitting the sweet spot with an upcoming SNL appearance.

Timothee Chalamet $3.50 Bet365

97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance

An outlier on a film that is gaining momentum.

The Substance $6.50 TAB

Tony Coca-Cola

97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Demi Moore

This price will not last.

Demi Moore $2.50 TAB

97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance

An outlier with a play on a film that is gaining momentum.

The Substance $6.50 TAB

97th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – Emilia Perez

Likely to be the leading nominated film when the Academy Awards are announced next week and a challenger to Conclave.

Emilia Perez $15 TAB

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