S5E06 podcast: 2025 Oscars betting guide: best predictions, value picks & latest Academy Awards odds. Plus, how to 5x your return on this dark horse, the Oscars bet of the season
With a brutal bat signal, is it bye bye to Brady Corbet and hello to Anora, the scrappy independent film made for $6 million? We unpack the momentous shift in Academy Awards betting markets following a weekend of PGA, CCA and DGA Awards.
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Film Editing - Conclave, Anora, Emilia Pérez
The odds are large enough to stack 3 of the 5 contenders in this category for a profitable outcome. This is also a play against the unlikelihood of awarding the boring 3.5 hour+ The Brutalist.
Medium to high conviction
Conclave $2.37 Bet365
Anora $7 Neds
Emilia Pérez $11 Neds
97th Academy Awards - Best International Feature Film - I’m Still Here
The Brazilian film I’m Still Here has momentum, universal themes, and political relevance, making it a strong contender in this category.
Betting strategy:
Back the tailwinds of I’m Still Here
Play against the headwinds of Emilia Pérez
At least a 30-40% win probability to be backed with medium conviction
I’m Still Here $3.40 Sportsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short - I Am Ready, Warden & Incident
A medium conviction play that one of these films will secure the win.
I Am Ready, Warren $2.10 Bet365
Incident $3.50 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
The implied odds suggest just a 10% chance for The Substance, which is a major bookmaker error that presents a great betting opportunity.
Low to medium conviction.
The Substance $11 Bet365
78th British Academy Film Awards - Best Film Not in the English Language – All We Imagine As Light & I’m Still Here
How to bet on the BAFTAs? BAFTA voting has been under increased scrutiny, making European-friendly and diverse titles more likely to win.
With the BAFTA voting window now open, the Emilia Pérez controversy has not been factored in. Widely criticised for their discriminatory choices, here’s an opportunity for the Brits to reposition themselves.
Remember one of the greatest Oscars upsets in modern times when Anthony Hopkins triumphed over Chadwick Aaron Boseman, who was a 95% bookmaker favourite to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards in 20201? The studio behind this upset win was Sony Picture Classics.
The campaign ninjas demonstrated their craft when Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe last month.
All We Imagine As Light was shut out from the Academy Awards, however, don’t count out this British production. The Brits have shown to favour their own.
Low to medium conviction
All We Imagine As Light $17 Bet365
I’m Still Here $5 Bet365
31st Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture - Wicked
An opportunity to reward a massive box office success, with undervalued odds that should be much shorter.
Medium to high conviction.
Wicked $2 Sportsbet
Max Renn
97th Academy Awards - Best Director - Sean Baker
A high-value betting opportunity with odds that should be much lower. Baker’s indie success and directorial vision make this a high conviction bet.
High conviction.
Sean Baker $5.50 Bet Right
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
What’s a key betting strategy to winning money at the Oscars? It’s finding value and underrated prospects. It’s identifying poorly priced contenders by bookmakers that are not representative of their the true win probability.
This dark horse is the bet of the season. Odds are moving quickly on The Substance. Since recording our podcast on Sunday night, there is still time to 5x your betting return, with 6-1 odds representing outstanding value.
A high conviction bet.
The Substance $11 Neds
Tony Coca-Cola
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture - Anora
The momentum is shifting away from The Brutalist, making Anora the stronger contender for Best Picture.
Anora $2.65 Topsport
97th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – The Substance
This is a a high conviction bet, also aligned with Max Renn and The Professor
The Substance $11 Neds
97th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography – Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
A fade against The Brutalist in this category presents value in alternative bets.
Dune: Part Two $4 Bet365
Nosferatu $6.50 Neds
97th Academy Awards - Best Film Editing - Conclave
Conclave’s thriller-like structure and intricate character dynamics, it follows the blueprint of previous winners and has a strong advantage to win Best Film Editing.
Conclave $2.37 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Animated Short - Wander to Wonder
Wander to Wonder $6 Bet Right
97th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short - The Only Girl in the Orchestra
AMPAS voters often make impulse voting decisions based on title perception, making this film undervalued by bookmakers.
The Only Girl in the Orchestra $11 Bet365