Podcast S3 E13 2023 - last drinks and final Oscars best bets
No stone unturned, no going back: opening the kimono on all of our Oscar bets.
Betting on the 95th Academy Awards since April last year, there have been some outstanding value plays.
In this episode, we reveal every single bet and our predictions for each category at the 2023 Academy Awards.
For best bets, play below, download, or or find it on all podcast platforms.
Best bets
The Professor
95th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Austin Butler
When the comeback narrative was pushing Mickey Rourke to win Best Actor for Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler, I am expecting history to repeat for Brendan Fraser.
Rourke lost to Sean Penn, and I’m betting on Austin Butler to edge ahead of Brendan Fraser.
Bookmakers are underrating the affection and respect for Elvis, where the odds should be $1.90 each.
This is a medium to high level conviction play.
$2.30 Unibet - Austin Butler
95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Elvis
What’s the shared statistic for Dune, Mank, 1917, and Blade Runner 2049? All titles won the American Society of Cinematographers Award (ASC) for Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography in Theatrical Release. In fact, 7 of the last 10 winners have crossed over from ASC to Best Cinematography at the Academy Awards.
Like Mank was underrated by the market at the 2021 Oscars, Elvis is in similar waters.
Mandy Walker became the first ever female to win the ASC, and the Australian cinematographer is at least a 30% probability of making Oscars history by taking home the Best Cinematography trophy.
I am betting on a big night for Elvis in the craft categories, and cinematography could be a surprise addition to the trophy cabinet.
This is a medium level conviction play.
$5.50 Bet Right - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Documentary - Fire of Love
The accessibility and newsworthiness of Navalny makes the documentary a deserved favourite. But it does not deserve to be a 65%+ implied probability by bookmakers to win the Best Documentary Academy Award.
Fire of Love won the 2023 ACE Eddie Award for documentary editing, which signals a strong chance for Oscar glory: this win has matched 80% Oscars Best Documentary the last 10 yrs.
I rate Fire of Love at least a 30% chance to win, and $6.00 represents a superb value bet with low to medium conviction
$6.00 Pointsbet - Fire of Love
43rd Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Supporting Actor - Tom Hanks
Reliable Gold Derby pundits have formed a consensus that Tom Hanks will take home the unfortunate honours at the 2023 Razzies.
This price should be shorter, with a 60% probability or $1.67 price.
$1.80 Sportsbet - Tom Hanks
43rd Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Screen Combo - Andrew Dominik & his issues with Women (Blonde)
Backing a Razzies beat up on the most misunderstood film of yesteryear: Blonde.
Low conviction.
$3.60 Sportsbet - Andrew Dominik & his issues with Women (Blonde)
Tony Coca-Cola
95th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett
Bassett wins this, and this is a price too good to pass up.
$2.30 Sportsbet - Angela Bassett
95th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay - The Banshees of Inisherin
This is a bet against Everything Everywhere All At Once and a vote for Martin McDonagh.
$2.10 Bet365, Tabtouch or Unibet - The Banshees of Inisherin
95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Elvis
Cheering on a historic win for Mandy Walker.
$5.50 Bet Right - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Original Score - The Fabelmans
For his 53rd Oscar nomination, I’m backing John Williams. The Fabelmans has got to win something on Oscar Sunday.
$11.00 Bet365 - The Fabelmans
95th Academy Awards - Best Costume Design - Elvis and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Either Elvis and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever win Best Costume Design. Betting on both will result in profit.
$2.00 Neds or Ladbrokes - Elvis
$3.00 Bet Right - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
95th Academy Awards - Best Make-Up & Hairstyling - Elvis
Great price to pounce on.
$1.85 Neds or Ladbrokes - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short Film - Haulout
Jumping back on this, I really admire Haulout.
$5.50 Bet365 - Haulout
95th Academy Awards - Best Live Action Short Film - The Red Suitcase
If Academy Awards members see The Red Suitcase, they’ll agree this is the best one in the category.
$7.00 Bet Right, Neds or Ladbrokes - The Red Suitcase
95th Academy Awards - Best Animated Short Film - My Year of Dicks or Ice Merchants
This is a play against the favourite The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse.
$6.50 Bet Right - My Year of Dicks
$7.00 TAB - Ice Merchants