Podcast S3 E11 2023 - a deep dive into the odds and best bets for the 2023 BAFTA, SAG, DGA and PGA Awards
The coming days will further shape the betting markets for the 2023 Academy Awards.
Bookmakers have underrated several contenders across the Guild awards.
For the full episode, play below, download, or find it on all podcast platforms.
For best bets, play below, download, or or find it on all podcast platforms.
Best bets
The Professor
75th Directors Guild of America Awards - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert and Todd Field
Erik Anderson from Awards Watch has presented a compelling thesis behind Todd Field being a strong contender to win Best Director at the 95th Academy Awards.
But before Oscar glory, Field must first win the Directors Guild of America Award. History tells us that 8 of the last 10 winners from the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film go on to win Best Director at the Academy Awards.
Field has had vocal support from the likes of Martin Scorsese and Alfonso Cuarón.
The winds of change are blowing in Field’s favour. The Tár director is at least a 10% or $10 shot to win and the odds are too big to ignore.
Equally underrated are the odds for the Daniels to win.
Both are a low conviction play.
$2.85 Sportsbet - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
$15.00 Sportsbet - Todd Field
43rd Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Remake, Rip-off or Sequel - Disney's Pinocchio
Here’s the thesis behind this bet, reported on February 11.
$2.10 Sportsbet - Disney's Pinocchio
29th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture - The Banshees of Inisherin
This is a play against the hype bubble that is Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The Banshees of Inisherin is in top spot by respected pundits at Gold Derby.
Also a low conviction bet.
$4.00 Sportsbet - The Banshees of Inisherin
A House Made of Splinters. If Academy Awards members see it, they will vote for it.
Max Renn
AACTA International Award for Best Film - Elvis
It is rinse and repeat for the Bazarama bet, as I highly recommended on our previous podcast episode.
High conviction.
$2.20 Sportsbet - Elvis
AACTA International Award for Best Direction - Baz Luhrmann
High conviction.
$2.50 Sportsbet - Elvis
Tony Coca-Cola
76th British Academy Film Awards - Best Actor in a Leading Role - Colin Farrell
This price should be shorter.
$1.65 Sportsbet - Colin Farrell
76th British Academy Film Awards - Best Actress in a Leading Role - Cate Blanchett
Also betting odds that are too big.
$1.72 Sportsbet - Cate Blanchett
29th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role - Brendan Fraser
Fraser is in a strong position here and I expect him to win.
$2.00 Sportsbet - Brendan Fraser
95th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking
These betting odds are crazy, and should be $1.40-1.50. This price is excellent.
$1.70 Sportsbet or Neds - Women Talking
95th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Feature - A House Made of Splinters
If members of the Academy Awards see this brilliant documentary, they will support it. This roughie is worth a play.
$34.00 Bet365 - A House Made of Splinters