The final hurdle: a feast of best bets across the Oscars and 2023 SAG, PGA, AACTA Awards
A handful of precursors remain before the final sprint.
There are some worthwhile wagers this weekend.
Best bets
Tony Coca-Cola
29th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role - Austin Butler
10/16 Gold Derby Experts have Austin Butler winning SAG. (Only 4 have Fraser, and two of those Experts haven’t even updated since January.)
Medium-high conviction.
$2.50 Sportsbet or Bet Right - Austin Butler
29th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role - Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh
It’s very likely one of these two, so bundle them up, and you won’t lose.
High conviction on both.
$2.00 Bet Right - Cate Blanchett
$2.20 Bet365 - Michelle Yeoh
Stocks are rising for Navalny. Picture courtesy of Warner Brothers / CNN / HBO Max
34th Producers Guild of America Awards - Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures - Navalny
Fire of Love is favourite at $2 (a pretty good price, and probably worth a hedge.) But from a producer perspective, there’s not much to it; just an assemblage of archival footage.
At least Summer of Soul recorded more than one voiceover. Whereas Navalny’s producers put a (no doubt permanent) target on their back simply by selecting their subject. Degree of difficulty much higher.
Medium conviction.
$3.00 Sportsbet - Navalny
12th AACTA International Awards - AACTA International Award for Best Film and Best Film Direction - Elvis and Baz Luhrmann
Max Renn has been spruiking these best bets for the past few months, and the prices are still tasty.
High conviction on both.
$2.15 Bet Right - Elvis
$2.25 Bet Right - Baz Luhrmann
95th Academy Awards - Best Actor - Austin Butler
Paying $1.40 at Top Sport. Everything is now pointing towards Austin Butler winning the Best Actor Oscar.
BAFTA Actor winners have lined up with Oscar Actor winners 9 of the past 10 years. (The one actor that missed was Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. But Dallas Buyers Club hadn’t been released in UK at the time. Yes, screeners would’ve been sent out, but without the typical word-of-mouth momentum from a mainstream release, it was always gonna be DOA. The film didn’t get any BAFTA nominations at all that year, not even for Jared Leto in Supporting Actor, who swept the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG.)
Butler also has the potent Best Picture nomination stat on his side. For 12 of the past 13 years, Best Actor winners come from a film also nominated for Best Picture. That’s Fraser’s biggest stumbling block.
And finally, as outlined above, Butler should also snag the SAG this weekend. His Oscar price will likely be sub-2 by Monday afternoon. Get on now.
Medium-high conviction.
$2.25 Bet Right - Austin Butler