The State of the 2025 Oscars Race

Few frontrunners spells potential profits this awards season

It’s gonna be a tough year, but potentially a very profitable one. (If only the bookies would open up more early markets!)

There are no clear frontrunners in any of the major categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

There’s no further consensus in Adapted Screenplay, Feature Documentary, Animated Feature, or International Feature either.

(Original Screenplay is perhaps the only category we can agree on at this early stage: Sean Baker for Anora.)

The good news is that with this instability comes great odds to capitalise on. (As long as, again, there are markets! We want to give you money! Why won’t you take our money?!)

Best Picture has been the only market available here in Australia for months (and not even carried by all bookies.) Here’s my current top 3 for Best Picture:

#1 Nickel Boys

More often than not, the Academy tends to shun technically-innovative films for Picture. Recent exceptions would be Birdman, maybe Everything Everywhere All at Once also. Will Nickel Boys’ POV-style be too much of a hurdle? Or, as the filmmakers hope, does it allow for a more intimate experience of the characters/story? Is it immersive, rather than distancing? 89 Metacritic after only 13 reviews; still early days. But it’s got great thematics, it’s based on a great book, and it’s got a great hook (which could play either way.) It’s my #1 at present, and currently paying 21 at Bet365! Insane price. Fantastic early value. Small conviction.

#2 Anora

I’m yet to see it, but from what I’ve read, it just appears so generic, so rote; Pretty Woman with Russian gangsters. I don’t get it. But those who have seen it have completely fallen under its spell. 90 Metacritic! (after 28 reviews.) An incredible response for (what seems to me) a pretty conventional, if modern, fairytale. Regardless, it’s presently tracking for a top 3 finish, and paying 7 at Points Bet. Worth an early punt. Medium conviction.

#3 The Brutalist

My main objection with this film (also unseen) is how similar it seems to Oppenheimer: another 3hr story about a tortured man chasing his impossible dream. Will the Academy really reward the same archetype two years in a row? Not sure.

I can see it winning in other categories, but Picture might be a bridge too far. It was completely absent from betting markets before its Toronto premiere, then rocketed into top 3 contention. Best price at the moment is 4.50 TAB. Just too short for an early play. Will have to wait and see what happens with some early critic prizes.

The Other Contenders

In terms of others: I’m not convinced about Emilia Perez. Musicals are a tough sell to a broad audience, and it’s not yet setting the critical world on fire. (Only 70 MC after 21.)

The release of Sing Sing was just horrible; A24 is fallible after all. I went in expecting Extreme Ham & Cheese, but found it a surprisingly understated film. This probably makes it a better watch, but unsurprisingly, doesn’t make it a better betting prospect.

From early reports, Bltiz looks solid enough to score 5-6 nominations, but a Picture win is doubtful.

Conclave, while a gripping watch, just seems too pulpy to seriously contend. And there’s no way anyone’s going near September 5 for the top prize. Far too hot.

And a quick read of the other major categories:

Director

This is the category where technical innovation is typically rewarded, so I’d place Ross first, just ahead of Corbet, Baker third.

Actor

Probably Brody, then Fiennes, then Domingo. Fiennes could potentially get it for Career Achievement, but as mentioned above, the film plays like a John Grisham book. Not sure the Academy is gonna take the bait. If Rustin was released this year, I’d probably put Domingo first: flashiest role of the bunch, more “important” themes. But in Sing Sing, he’s pretty unremarkable, low-key. Don’t think it’s gonna be enough.

Actress

Wide open. Maria is not the film Jackie, or even Spencer, was, so it’s gonna be tough for Jolie to break through. (She’ll be campaigning hard, though.)

No idea how Nightbitch is gonna play with general audiences; the tone seems too broad. Madison is far too new to just jump into a win; the Academy hasn’t rewarded a true breakthrough ingénue since… maybe Brie Larson in Room? But even she had a decent career before her win; Madison hasn’t done much at all. Can’t see it happening. Gascon for Emilia Perez could surprise. I like Ronan for The Outrun. Great Oscar fodder (addiction), universally-loved actress.

I also think Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths has a shot; unlikeable character vs. (another) universally-loved actress makes for an interesting campaign.

Supporting Actor

Another open race, which is why I still favour Jackson. If Jamie Lee Curtis can win a Career Achievement Oscar with that performance in EEAAO, then Jackson can definitely go all the way. (She did campaign like a demon; not sure Jackson will push that hard.)

If The Apprentice pops even a little, we could see a Succession nomination double, with Strong and Culkin. The eldest boy won’t win out here, though; I’d place Culkin ahead.

Supporting Actress

Deadwyler vs. Saldana, leaning towards Deadwyler.