S5E01 podcast: on the eve of Hunting Season we apply the betting microscope to the new season awards season
There are value gems to be consumed this September, where under the radar titles will pop and bookmakers slow to react.
When Poor Things surprised many at last year’s Venice Film Festival, it was a strong early play on eventual Oscar winner Emma Stone, paying big 8-1 odds.
Hunting Season is upon us, where the acclaim for Oscar contenders is not priced in.
Also in this episode: a review of two titles likely to collect many craft Oscar nominations, Dune II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, and new documentary Mountain Queen The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
Sneakily the first or second frontrunner for the Academy Award’s most prestigious honour that is over 185 days away, bookmakers have underpriced Edward Berger’s follow up to All Quiet on the Western Front.
Reliable pundits have Berger’s Papal thriller high in the frame, alongside Sing Sing.
It’s almost a blind stake, with the trailer and book adaptation being the only data point for this play. However, if received well at the upcoming festival season in September, Conclave’s prospects will rise and odds will fall.
The time to pull the trigger, therefore, is now.
Low to medium conviction.
Conclave $15
76th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie - Andrew Scott
Although the hot priest from Fleabag did not score an Oscar nomination last go round, the Irish actor charmed the circuit and I expect goodwill in Holllywoodtown to translate into voting favour for his turn in Ripley.
Ripley does not have the water cooler popularity of favoured contender, Gadd in Baby Reindeer. In comparison, Steven Zaillian TV adaption was more critical darling which slightly reduces its prospects. Emmys voters have consistently voted with the most popular fare, evidenced by the previous awards ceremony in January where it was a sweep for most involved in Beef, Succession and The White Lotus.
There are plenty of other ways to honour Gadd for his creation, fewer opportunities above the line for Ripley.
From the last 10 Emmys, only 4 in 10 occasions has the winner of Actor and Limited matched. They do not match 60% of the time, which favours the way this will likely go which is Baby Reindeer to win Limited Series and Andrew Scott to win actor.
At odds of 5-1, bookies have underestimated the probability here. Andrew Scott can be backed with medium confidence.
76th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series - Hacks "Bulletproof"
The Bear this time faces stronger competition, against the beloved Hacks.
For the Bulletproof episode, my ratings have it rated a 50% chance, so there is a small edge here from a betting perspective.
Hacks "Bulletproof" $2.38
76th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series - Slow Horses "Negotiating with Tigers"
The angle here is that this category is writers voting for writers. Among the highest qualities of Slow Horses is its cracking dialogue, wit and twisty plot.
It could be a lonely night for the British series, however, this category is one in which it could reduce Shogun’s medal tally.
At 7-1 +odds, bookies have underestimated the admiration for Slow Horses.
Low to medium conviction
Slow Horses: "Negotiating with Tigers" $7.50
Max Renn
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
I have Blitz and Sing Sing as the leading Best Picture contenders, with both pricing shorter odds compared with Conclave which are good odds.
$13 Conclave Pointsbet & Topsport
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Nickel Boys
The impressive craft by RaMell Ross in Hale County This Morning, This Evening gives me confidence that the adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Colson Whitehead could be something special.
If it delivers, these long odds will not last.
Nickel Boys $15 PlayUp, Tosport
Tony Coca-Cola
76th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series - Ayo Edebiri
Edebiri is everywhere, and this is a smart play at the price.
Small to medium conviction.
Ayo Edebiri $3.25
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
Sing Sing is the frontrunner, however Conclave and Nickel Boys are not too far behind.
I concur with The Professor: a Maestro Make Up win is a high conviction play
$13 Conclave Pointsbet & Topsport
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Nickel Boys
At this stage of the race, before September’s film festivals, Nickel Boys is a solid chance.
Nickel Boys $15 PlayUp, Tosport