Early 2025 Oscars picks

Here are my first 2025 Oscar predictions, just before Cannes kicks into gear.

Early thoughts on Best Picture 

As a reference, my early 2024 Oscar prediction results, as published on April 28 2023, were Picture 5/10, Director 2/5, Actor 4/5, Actress 2/5, Supporting Act 0/5, Supporting Actress 1/5, with correct winners in Picture & Director.

- Right now, I like Blitz for Picture and Actress. Ronan has such an impressive CV behind her. She’s not overdue, but her work is continuously stellar, she makes great choices, and, like always, you never bet against the Holocaust;

- I’m happy to predict Coppola winning Director for Megalopolis (I think it’s a great bet for Cannes Palme D’Or too), though it might be a bridge too far. The old master, back with a film that seemingly defies both his age, and the rules of filmmaking; it’s totally worth throwing $10 or $20 on, if the odds are 10-1 or better. Will the Academy embrace such a massive swing from one of their own? I hope so. Busting to see this;

- I doubt Kinds of Kindness has as strong an impact as Poor Things or The Favourite, mostly because it’s a contemporary-set anthology film; tougher to set up the suspension of disbelief. It’ll be solid, and weird, with moments that pop, which I can see justifying a Picture nom. But perhaps too weird? Though we said that about Poor Things too, didn’t we?;

- I’m somewhat bullish on Conclave. We could have another Florian Zeller/The Son situation, where everyone loves the breakthrough first film, but the next film flops. But I have more confidence in Berger, and particularly Fiennes (a legitimate case of overdue.) I can see it getting 3-4 above-the-line noms, easy;

- I don’t think Furiosa will be an above-the-line player. It should definitely feature in the craft categories, and perhaps win 1-2, but it’s hard to see how Miller can top the originality and shocking spectacle of Fury Road. Perhaps a Pic nom, but don’t see Miller getting a Dir nom. (Good luck to him, but Hemsworth seems horribly miscast also);

- Similarly, I don’t see Joker: Folie a Deux nabbing noms for Picture, Director, Actor or Actress. (Though I’d place Gaga’s chances ahead of Phoenix.) The novelty of a “serious” comic book film has worn off. The trailer just seems more of the same. Plus, the fact that it’s supposedly a musical only raises its degree of difficulty, and I doubt Phillips is a strong enough filmmaker to handle it;

- Gladiator 2 is a tough call. The original won Picture, Actor and three craft, it’s still well regarded, it’s clearly a genre Scott does well, and early buzz is very positive. But since the expanded Picture nominations in 2009, Scott has made 10 films (most which seemed to generate early Oscar buzz), for only one Picture nom (The Martian in 2016) and zero Director noms. I’m thinking that trend continues, and it misses the big categories;

- I’m VERY interested in Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, a post-apocalyptic musical with a strong cast, his first narrative film after two amazing docos. I hope it surprises and makes a big splash, but my instinct is it’ll go down the way of Babylon, as an interesting experiment;

- I’m VERY bullish on Samuel L. Jackson for Supporting Actor, especially if The Piano Teacher snags a Picture nomination. (Though I think he’ll win even without it.) Like Fiennes, there’s a big overdue narrative behind him. There’s a great symmetry around him and the project too: he played the same part on Broadway two years ago (to a Tony nomination), and originated the younger part 37 years ago. If the markets were open, I’d load up BIG time;

- I can see The Apprentice popping in a few acting categories. Audiences may instinctively rail against it, as it might be seen to humanise Trump. (Or maybe it doesn’t; we don’t know the angle yet.) But the talent in this project is too strong to ignore. Not sure Sebastian Stan gets a nom here, but he’s definitely winning one within the next ten years. Adore his work. Really looking forward to seeing how this plays. Could definitely snag a Pic nom;

- Not seeing a lot of early prediction love for Juror # 2. Eastwood doing a courtroom drama, good early buzz - I think this one might pop also;

- No-one seems to have any idea what’s happening with Long Day’s Journey Into Night, but Lange and Harris appear to have smashed it. Would love Harris to get up. (How good is he in Love Lies Bleeding?! How good is everything about Love Lies Bleeding?! My fave of the year, so far.)

Academy Awards 2025 favoured contenders (in bold)

PICTURE

The Apprentice

Blitz

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Juror No. 2

Kinds of Kindness

Sing Sing

Megalopolis

Nickel Boys

Queer

DIRECTOR

Edward Berger - Conclave

Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis

Clint Eastwood – Juror # 2

Steve McQueen - Blitz

Denis Villenueve – Dune: Part Two

ACTOR

Daniel Craig – Queer

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Adam Driver – Megalopolis

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Ed Harris - Long Day’s Journey Into Night

ACTRESS

Amy Adams - Nightbitch

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys

Angelina Jolie – Maria

Jessica Lange - Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

SUPP ACTOR

Willem Dafoe - Kinds of Kindness

Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow – Conclave

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Stanley Tucci – Conclave

SUPP ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice

Joan Chen - Didi

Toni Collette – Juror # 2

Leslie Manville – Queer

Isabella Rossellini - Conclave