The Zone of Betting Introspection: Max Renn’s awards season review (part 3)

Even though Giamatti and Gladstone did not salute, applying probabilistic thinking and the pursuit of value should be the rationale for entertainment awards betting.

Lessons learnt during season 4 

Unfortunately the key information required to be able to conduct a review of our Oscar plays will never be available to us - the distribution of votes.

The difference between my negative POT result and a greater than 100% positive POT would have been Paul Giamatti and Lily Gladstone winning their categories. We can only guess as to how close the races were for Best Actor and Actress. I feel these were tight.

The lesson here is very simple and also a microcosm of my betting philosophy overall - continue to bet value propositions as they arise, particularly closer to game day.

Ask yourself - how likely is the outcome given the information you have right now? Is there clear value in the bet? Clarify the reasons for your decision. Commit to this rationale.