7 reasons why sharp Oscars bettors should pocket these two overlooked frontrunners

While most Best Picture contenders have been seen, bookmakers have overlooked the prospects of Anora and Emilia Perez.

Both titles boast valuable odds at 7-1, and the secret algorithm sauce of rating the main contenders has them in a commanding lead.

#1 The strong Netflix push 

Against the pushback by cinema purists, the streamer has fought hard for awards legitimacy. The holy grail of Best Picture has not yet been achieved and this season could be Netflix’s strongest chance with Emilia Perez.

Expect hard campaigning and marketing muscle behind Zoe Saldana for Supporting Actress, Karla Sofía Gascón for Actress and, of course, Best Picture.

#2 The power of the pack 

The Jamie Lee Curtis playbook together with the Everything Everywhere All at Once demonstrated the influence of campaigning as a unit. Compliment each other’s work, shine the spotlight on your co-stars.

CODA accelerated its Oscars momentum at the Screen Actor Awards in 2022 when the team won best ensemble. Voters were charmed by their underdog status and the goodwill propelled Sian Heder’s family drama to a Best Picture win.

The Emilia Perez trio of Saldana, Gomez and Gascón are campaigning positively so far, with echoes of this pack goodwill.

#3 The brutal positioning challenge 

Late breaking and surging is The Brutalist, which chief among the headwinds it faces is it’s running time. The A24 team face a challenge to reposition the 3.5hr experience (especially after the length of Oppenheimer, which Tony Coca-Cola highlighted).

Brady Corbet’s epic historical drama is first or second market favourite but cannot be trusted nor touched at short odds at this stage of the race.

The earliest and strongest market moves will be post Golden Globes, where The Brutalist is likely to win Best Film Drama. In this scenario, it’s odds will further shorten. Believers of this film are advised to bet now before this happens, however, our team of betting analysts aren’t in the Corbet Camp.

The Brutalist shoots out of the gates, while Sing Sing and Blitz fade.

#4 The Golden Globes momentum starter 

Either Emilia Perez or Anora will win Best Film Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes on January 5th. Imagine the goodwill that will positively influence the room on the way to the Academy Awards several weeks later.

As Brendan Fraser and Ke Huy Quan will tell you, the power of teary winning acceptance speeches auger positively for the awards path.

#5 The People Choose  

The People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival has been an Oscars bellwether that has history. What then to make of the 2024 winner, The Life of Chuck? Variety reports that we will likely see the release of Mike Flanagan’s film in 2025.

So when we remove Chuck as an Oscars Best Picture contender, the first runner-up Emilia Pérez, and second runner-up Anora is telling.

Between 2012 and 2024, there have been 3 Academy Award Best Picture winners who also won the People’s Choice Award (Nomadland, Green Book, 12 Years a Slave). And 10 of the last 11 People's Choice Award winners were nominated for Best Picture.

As a Best Picture contender, Palme d'Or winner Anora has the twin appeal of being critical favour as well as crowd pleasing for normal humans.

Buy signals for Emilia Perez, Conclave and Anora.

#6 The Other Contender  

The top five of Best Picture contenders is solidifying, where we can group The Brutalist, Dune II, Anora, Emilia Perez and Conclave. The back half of 6-10 spots is loose and variable.

Conclave is a dark horse. The papal thriller has broad enough appeal with critics and the general populace to be a strong contender, but will it have the passion?

We’ve recommended Edward Berger’s as a bet on our podcast and X. Best available at 15-1 odds, if you don’t yet have Conclave in your betting pool, best bet now at this juicy price.

#7 The other way to get those feel good voting feels  

Alongside Crash, CODA will be remembered as one of the worst Best Picture winners. But the victory reminded us that Academy Award voters want to feel good about their vote. They vote for who they like. They vote to make a personal statement. They vote because (the ensemble of deaf actors) made them feel like they can make a positive dent in the world.

Liberally leaning voters, boosted by woke leaning Variety, can also be expected to recognise the diversity of the cast and LGBTIQA+ community this year with a first ever nomination of the performance of transgender actor Karla Sofía Gascón. This factor bodes well for Emilia Perez.

Anora and Emilia Perez are the play

Asleep on the trading desk, bookmakers can be hit now with Anora and Emilia Perez offering delicious 7-1 odds. Both titles can be backed with medium conviction.