S5E02 podcast: can an airport novel adaptation land a Best Picture win?
New Academy Awards betting markets emerge, and we sniff out some underrated contenders.
Also under the Oscars microscope are reviews of Sing Sing, The Apprentice and the strange splendor of Megalopolis.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
At the 2023 Oscars, an expensive lesson was learnt: it’s challenging to sustain a frontrunner lead. Such was the case for The Fabelmans. As late as January in that awards season, when Spielberg’s film won the Golden Globe Best Motion Fiction Drama, it looked like the path for the film backed solidy at 11-1 would go all the way to the promised land.
Until it didn’t. The momentum train of Everything Everywhere All at Once had other ideas, and it swept everything away.
The history lesson is pertinent to this stage of the Oscars race, with Anora as an outright frontrunner. Oppenheimer proved that a frontrunner can maintain the lead and win, but this was the exception, less so the rule.
So on Oscar Sunday, who will be strongly in the mix to win Best Picture? I believe it will be Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist or Conclave.
For the Golden Globes in January, it will be The Brutalist vs Conclave in the Drama category. The latter has a good chance to win. If the papal thriller gets across the line, it’s odds will reduce significantly. The time to buy, therefore, is now.
Low to medium conviction
Conclave $17 Pointsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Director – Brady Corbet
Made on a shoestring $10 million budget, the narrative of “achievement” by Corbet bodes well for his chances.
The Brutalist director is well in front of nearest rival Sean Baker and should be closer to a win probability of 55% or $1.90
Corbet, in comparison with Baker, is an unknown quantity without a deep directorial filmography. Enthusiasm, therefore, is tempered to a medium conviction play.
Brady Corbet $2.75 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Ralph Fiennes
My charts indicate that Best Actor is shaping as a two horse race between Brody and Fiennes. Domingo is a fair way back in third, and spots are open for the fourth and fifth place, however, unlikely to threaten for win.
Evaluating the win probability and pricing:
Brody $1.83 or 55% chance is too bullish and is a stay away at the moment
Fiennes $3.50 is underrated and close behind the frontrunner, with an implied win probability of 29%, this is wrong. It should be at least 40% or $2.50
Domingo is overrated, also at $3.50 and will likely land a nomination but won’t seriously challenge for a win
Fiennes can be backed with medium to high conviction at the current price. If Brody wins the Golden Globe, top up on Fiennes. And zag the other way if Fiennes wins the Globe, get your money on Brody, whose odds will fade.
Ralph Fiennes $3.50 Bet365
Max Renn
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
Amazing price, pounce on the papal thriller.
Conclave $17 Pointsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Daniel Craig
There are glowing reports from the performance by Craig in Queer. This longshot is worth a play.
Daniel Craig $11 Bet365
Tony Coca-Cola
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Nickel Boys
With a Metacritic score of 89, Nickel Boys is undervalued and should be in the top 5 in odds markets.
Small conviction.
Nickel Boys $21 Bet365, Pointsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Director – Brady Corbet
Medium conviction play.
Brady Corbet $2.75 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Saoirse Ronan
It’s looking like this is Mikey Madison’s to lose, and could be the breakthrough performer that bursts through this awards season.
Three time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan poses as the strongest threat to Madison. The Irish actress is well liked in the industry and her Oscar baity performance in The Outrun could surprise.
Small conviction and worth a play.
Saoirse Ronan $9 Bet365