Pull the trigger: 5 reasons why now is the time to bet Mikey Madison

Although sports books have opened with short odds, Anora’s lead actress is a strong conviction play. Here are 5 reasons why.

#1 Take the edge

By my calculations, Madison is at least a 65% win probability or $1.53 or -187.5 for Best Actress at the 2025 Academy Awards. Currently offered at $1.62 by Bet365, there’s a small edge in betting favour.

#2 A new face in a weak(er) field

In previous Oscars years, Best Actress has been a shootout. Think Blanchett v Yeoh and Stone v Gladstone. This year, however, there is a clear frontrunner, with arguably a weaker field and a large gap between top spot (Madison) and the also contenders.

Madison's fresh, unknown status augur well for her Oscar win chances.

#3 Back Baker’s track record

Sean Baker is incredible at casting actors and it is clear he can direct actors to give outstanding performances.

#4 Back the performance

The character of Anora is complex and so allows Madison to demonstrate performative intelligence and emotional range.

You absolutely buy Madison as the character. At no point in the film do you not think Madison is the character. For instance, the subtlety of the use of Russian language.

The film is written in such a way for the audience to be very empathetic towards Anora.

#5 Back the last impression of the final scene

The nature of the film's final scene and the performances in the scene are very special and so it will leave the Oscar voter with an indelible impression of both the emotional complexity of the film and its central character.