S5E03 podcast: Golden Globes markets review, plus rare consensus on a strong Oscars bet
The 2025 Golden Globes present juicy opportunities, and extra Academy Awards markets come under the betting microscope
We review The Substance, documentary frontrunner No Other Land, Conclave and Emilia Perez.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
97th Academy Awards - Best Picture – Conclave
Last pod, time to buy Conclave was 17-1 or +1600 for US audiences.
My charts indicate strong support for the Vatican thriller, and it’s overlooked status at 9-1 odds is still a buy for sharp bettors.
Medium conviction
Conclave $9 Pointsbet
97th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana
Back the betting favourite on Oscar Sunday, and the win conversion is 100% from the last 16 years. The last time an outsider won Best Supporting Actress was for Tilda Swinton’s winning performance in Michael Clayton.
Don’t let the frothiness of Wicked cloud your judgement. Saldana is so far my strongest betting conviction this awards season.
If Saldana loses to Grande at the Golden Globes, hold your nerve and go again at what will probably larger odds for the Emilia Perez actress.
Zoe Saldana $1.61 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin
Here comes the sweep. With weaker competition in this category, and the hype of Washington’s Gladiator 2 performance subsiding, Culkin is strongly positioned to win the Academy Award.
80% win probability or 1.25, small edge.
Kieran Culkin $1.33 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana
The high conviction for Saldana’s Oscar campaign transposes for the Golden Globe also.
Zoe Saldana $1.75 Sportsbet
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor - Musical or Comedy – Jesse Eisenberg and Sebastian Stan
This may be the opportunity to recognise the stellar year for Stan.
Medium conviction that either Eisenberg or Stan win this.
Jesse Eisenberg $2.75 Bet365
Sebastian Stan $4.00 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actress – Drama – Nicole Kidman and Fernanda Torres
Look closely at the nominees here. Only one has recognition in another prominent category: I’m Still Here for Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language.
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Kate Winslet, Lee
Torres could surprise, and is underestimated by bookmakers at 7-1 odds.
Publicity darling Nicole Kidman could also gain support from Golden Globes voters, and is appealing at 5-1 odds. This is also a bet against the star power of Angelina Jolie, where Maria received only one nomination.
Low to medium conviction.
Nicole Kidman, $4.00 Sportsbet
Fernanda Torres, $7.00 Sportsbet
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Score – The Brutalist, Conclave
Second highest conviction bet for the Golden Globes for either of these two titles to win Best Score.
The Brutalist score is a cracker, $2.75 is a gift price. Conclave for cover. Medium to high that either will win.
The Brutalist, $2.75 Bet365
Conclave, $3.00 Bet365
Max Renn
97th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana
High conviction.
Zoe Saldana $1.61 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande
Unlike The Professor, don’t underestimate the support for Ariana Grande in Wicked.
Either Saldana or Grande win this, with the former to use as cover.
Zoe Saldana $1.75 Sportsbet
Ariana Grande $2.50 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actress - Musical or Comedy – Demi Moore
The Substance continues to surprise with awards support, and Demi Moore is a low conviction shot.
Demi Moore $8.00 Sportsbet
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Director – Sean Baker
Medium conviction for the director of Anora.
Sean Baker $4.00 Sportsbet
Tony Coca-Cola
97th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldana
High conviction.
Zoe Saldana $1.61 Bet365
97th Academy Awards - Best Actor – Timothee Chalamet
Chalamet is a clear second behind Brody, and the price is too big to ignore for small to medium conviction play
Timothee Chalamet, $4.50 Neds or Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Score – The Brutalist, Conclave
Large conviction, get as much as you can on.
The Brutalist, $2.75 Bet365
Conclave, $3.00 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Motion Picture – Drama – A Complete Unknown
Small conviction, odds are too long.
A Complete Unknown, $23 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor – Drama – Timothee Chalamet
Small conviction
Timothee Chalamet $5.50 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actor - Musical or Comedy – Sebastian Stan
Concur with The Professor on Stan’s prospects.
Small conviction
Sebastian Stan $4.00 Bet365
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Actress – Drama – Fernanda Torres
Small conviction
Fernanda Torres, $7.00 Sportsbet
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Director – Sean Baker and Jacques Audiard
The Globes indicated strong support for Emilia Perez
Small conviction
Sean Baker $4.00 Sportsbet
Jacques Audiard $7.50 Sportsbet
82nd Golden Globe Awards - Best Original Song – El Mal (Emilia Perez)
Small conviction
El Mal (Emilia Perez) $2.87 Bet365