Podcast S3 E10 2023 Oscars best bets - all aboard the Elvis craft train
Don’t be like Daniel Plainview: “why don’t I own this?” We’ve unearthed rich betting value across the Academy Awards in Production Design, Cinematography, Costume Design and more.
There’s also over the odds value still be at the 2023 Directors Guild of America Awards and AACTA International Awards.
For the full episode, play below, download, or find it on all podcast platforms.
For best bets, play below, download, or or find it on all podcast platforms.
Best bets
The Professor
29th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role - Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler
Top performing Gold Derby experts Joyce Eng, Sasha Stone and Anne Thompson agree that Brendan Fraser or Austin Butler win this.
The pricing for Butler is wrong and must be pounced upon. My ratings have Butler a 40% probability of a win, or $2.50. At $3.75, this is a 50% price advantage that presents a medium to high level conviction bet.
Butler is also a watch for Best Actor at the Academy Awards. In the last 10 years, 8 winners have crossed over from the Screen Actors Guild Awards to Oscar victory in the Best Actor race. Butler’s price is a little too large across most bookmakers and represents value.
Brendan Fraser had a positive bump following a win at the Critics Choice Awards. Pricing is about right for Fraser. But with Butler and Fraser both in the mix, either will win.
$3.75 Bet365 - Austin Butler
$2.00 Sportsbet - Brendan Fraser
95th Academy Awards - Best Production Design - Babylon and Elvis
This is a play against Avatar, where the digital universe created by James Cameron’s crew will be ignored, and Academy Awards members instead will vote for the ‘real life’ world building of either Babylon and Elvis.
This is a medium conviction play.
$2.37 Bet365 - Babylon
$5.00 Bet365 - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Film Editing - Top Gun: Maverick
Every awards season the betting gods bestow us with betting gifts. On the sunset of the Oscars nominations, Tabtouch or Unibet presented an amazing $5.50 for Top Gun: Maverick to win Best Film Editing. In my books, this ranks among the best bets of the season.
Now that the odds are shorter, this still represents a high conviction bet.
$2.37 Bet365 -Top Gun: Maverick
It’s time for the first female cinematographer to be awarded at the Academy Awards. Mandy Walker’s beautiful work on the Elvis is a bet. Picture courtesy of Ruby Bell at ymcinema.com
Max Renn
AACTA International Award for Best Film - Elvis
It’s time to bang the drum again, with two of the highest conviction rated bets this awards season.
These two bets are begging for your money.
$2.20 Sportsbet - Elvis
AACTA International Award for Best Direction - Baz Luhrmann
This is a bet on Aussies supporting Aussies. Baz wins this.
$2.50 Sportsbet - Elvis
Tony Coca-Cola
75th Directors Guild of America Awards - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
If the Everything Everywhere All at Once virus continues to seep into every corner of Hollywood, this is worth a play.
$2.85 Sportsbet - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
75th Directors Guild of America Awards - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Comedy Series - Bill Hader
Returning to a best best previously, where I caught it at $4.50, Hader’s skill and positive DGA track record should be rewarded here.
$2.50 Sportsbet - Bill Hader
95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Elvis
It’s time for the first female cinematographer to be awarded at the Academy Awards.
Ari Wegner’s masterful work for The Power of the Dog was overlooked last year, but I believe the groundwork has been laid for Elvis cinematographer Mandy Walker to land a historic win.
Compared to The Power of the Dog, Elvis is more accessible and more liked.
At $5.50, these odds are too tasty to ignore.
$5.50 Bet365 - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Production Design - Elvis
It’s all aboard the Elvis craft train for the Oscars.
Whenever Catherine Martin has been nominated for both Production Design and Costume Design at the Oscars, she has won both. Nominated for both Production Design and Costume Design categories in Moulin Rouge and The Great Gatsby, Martin saluted with Oscar trophies.
$5.00 Bet365 - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Costume Design - Elvis
$2.50 Tabtouch or Unibet - Elvis
95th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short - Haulout
$6.00 Bet365 - Haulout