Best bet: the case for Curtis, get on before it’s too late Everywhere
Powered by a CODA like unit that is endearing voters and leading the regional awards circuit, the tide is rising for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
A beneficiary of this rising tide is Jamie Lee Curtis., who is solidly supported by the campaign engineering of A24. Seven out of ten Gold Derby experts currently have Curtis ranked first to win as Best Supporting Actress at the 80th Golden Globes.
The bet
On my ratings calculation, the probability rating of Curtis winning the Golden Globe is 60% or $1.67.
Priced at $2.25 on Sportsbet, that’s a 35% market edge in my favour. Set sail with Curtis, don’t delay.
Golden Globes Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
$2.25 Sportsbet
The horizon thesis
If we assume that Curtis wins the Golden Globe, “this, then that” future thinking must be applied for optimum betting. That is, if Curtis wins, then we anticipate a shift in variables, a change in the horizon and play in betting markets.
This time last year Ariana DeBose burst onto the scene with a luminous turn in West Side Story. Best Supporting Actress betting markets opened strongly with the belief that DeBose was the lead contender for an Oscar. By March 2022, priced at $1.06 on Sportsbet, the markets were right, and DeBose was victorious.
The path for 2023, however, is not clear. The waters for the Academy Award Best Supporting Actress category in 2023 are choppy. Multiple boats are navigating and pushing.
The campaign crew behind team Kerry Condon have wind in their sails, however, I don’t buy it. Condon is performing well in the regional awards, but the influential stage of the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards will be the litmus test. Condon does not have the star power of Curtis and does not have the legacy of work narrative that bodes well for the star of Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Kerry Condon stars in The Banshees of Inisherin. Picture courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
Angela Bassett is being pushed by Clayton Davis and Scott Feinberg. Hard to believe, as the Gold Derby combined Best Picture rankings has Black Panther: Wakanda Forever way back in 18th spot. And statistics tell us that 7 out of the last 10 Best Supporting Actress wins have been anchored with a Best Picture nomination. A win for Bassett will be a statistical surprise, especially if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever misses the Best Picture cut.
Meanwhile, Erik Anderson’s latest rankings at Awards Watch have Condon and Bassett as the top contenders, respectively.
Gold Derby’s experts have these predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
9/22 or 41% have Kerry Condon as the category leader
5/22 or 23% believe Jessie Buckley can win
4/22 or 18% rank Angela Bassett as number one
1/22 or 5% rank Jamie Lee Curtis in top spot
Among this list, Wilson Morales and Sasha Stone, who are top ranking Gold Derby experts, have Jessie Buckley in the number one position.
In one week, the breadcrumbs to Oscar glory will be revealed.
First with the Golden Globes, which are on January 10. Second, the Critics Choice Awards follow on January 15.
As Tony Coca-Cola has previously written, a Golden Globe win in Supporting Actress has matched with an Oscar win 7 out of the last 10 years.
For a Supporting Actress win at the Critics Choice, the statistical connection is stronger,: with an eventual Oscar win 9 out of the last 10 years.
The horizon bet
On the strength of the Critics Choice and Golden Globes numbers, the week of those awards will show the path.
Here is where “this, then that” will reveal itself.
If Curtis wins either, load your betting slip and proceed. Currently priced at $6, Curtis can be bet with medium conviction for Oscar glory.