Golden Globe Awards – By The Numbers

The Globes, as per usual, threw us some curveballs this week.

No Directing or Acting nominations for Women Talking; no Supporting Actor nominations for Fabelmans; Deadwyler out, de Armas in; Triangle of Sadness for Picture (Comedy/Musical) and Supporting Actress; Jamie Lee Curtis over Stephanie Hsu; and of course, professional campaigner Eddie Redmayne snags himself a Supporting Actor slot. He’s got the touch.

Finally some recognition: a Golden Globes nomination for Ana de Armas in Blonde. Picture courtesy of Netflix

Yet despite the volatility the Globes typically bring, they still provide some solid statistical links for the Oscars.

Over the past ten years, the Oscar winner in Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Feature, and Song has always had a corresponding Golden Globe nomination.

(Best Actor and Actress also have a 100% strike rate, but they have double the amount of nominees to choose from, thanks to the Globes splitting their categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical.)

So that doesn’t bode well for Polley (Director), Deadwyler, Dano and Hirsch, Apollo 10 ½, Bardo and Saint Omer, and Billie Eilish and Diane Warren in winning their Oscars.

Statistically odds agsinst: Sarah Polley’s Director Oscar nominaton chances are fading. Picture courtesy of Mark Von Holden at Variety.

For those that win a Globe, Actor has the highest correlation, with 9/10 winners going on to win the Oscar. (Though again, that stat is coming from a pool of two winners, not one.)

Actress, Animated Feature and Song winners have matched up 8/10 years, and Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Score have matched 7/10 years.

Strangely, even with two winners to choose from, Globe Picture winners only match with Oscar Picture winners 50% of the time.

But tread carefully with these stats. The HFPA has doubled their membership over the past 12 months. New voices equals new biases. (But they’re good biases now!)

This is The Way of the HFPA. Our advice is consistent - stay away from the Globes!