Emmys intel
With the Emmy markets finally open, here’s a few statistical reminders to help guide your punting.
As spruiked by The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg, Gold Derby’s Joyce Eng, and our very own Professor, the interest in James Marsden (Comedy Supporting Actor) is rising. Opening at $21 (TAB), he’s now into $4 (TAB).
Also, with The Bear bereft of jokes, Ted Lasso not sticking the landing, and Abbott Elementary without a writing nomination (80% correlation with Comedy Series win), the tasty price for Jury Duty to take out Comedy Series ($26 TAB) is further captivating.
However, there are a few key statistical indicators that should bring pause:
In 10 of the past 10 years, the winner of Comedy Series has also had a Directing nomination. Jury Duty does not have that nomination. (Barry, The Bear, Maisel, Ted Lasso, and Wednesday all do.)
In 9 of the past 10 years, the winner of Comedy Supporting Actor comes from a series that also has another Acting nomination. Jury Duty does not have that nomination. (Abbott, Barry, The Bear, and Ted Lasso all do.)
A few other stats worth noting:
In 10 of the past 10 years, the winner of Comedy Lead Actress comes from a series that also has another Acting nomination. Only Rachel Brosnahan and Quinta Brunson fit this requirement.
In 10 of the past 10 years, the winner of Limited Series has also had a Writing nomination. Only Beef and Fleishman Is in Trouble fit this requirement.
In 9 of the past 10 years, the winner of Limited Series Supporting Actor comes from a series that:
also has a Directing nomination;
also has a Writing nomination.
The only nominees to fit both those stats come from Beef: Joseph Lee and Young Mazino.
And don’t forget to keep an eye on the results from the Creative Arts Emmys (the one with all the craft categories that typically happens a week prior to the Primetime Emmys.) The winner of Casting in a Limited Series has gone on to win Limited Series 9/10 years.
And a strange one to close: in 9 of the past 10 years, the winner of Comedy Lead Actress has come from a series with a Writing nomination. But this year, none of the nominated actresses correlate with the writing nominees. Stats can’t tell you everything!
As to when the actual Emmy ceremony itself will be held, my money is on January 2024. And all the industry award shows can finally come together. What a glorious logjam of betting that’d be. Make it happen Television Academy!