Podcast S4 returns, Emmys primetime profits to be made
Bank on the fall of Abbott Elementary and other overrated bookmaker favourites to put yourself in prime position for Emmys betting glory.
After three conseuctive years’ of profitable betting on entertainment markets, we return with a comprehensive review of all things Emmys and a sneak preview of Best Picture Oscars markets.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
96th Academy Awards - Best Picture - Flowers of the Killer Moon
The price isn’t big, nor is is their market edge available. However three elements favour Martin Scorsese’s new film:
1. Star power of Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Both Oscar winners, high value and will rely less on the promotional circuit.
2. Blue chip credibility of the greatest living filmmaker - Martin Scorsese
3. Politics that will align with left leaning Academy Awards voters. The true story will be regarded as important and must see.
Sharp punters have previously followed us into an early best best on Oppenheimer to win Best Picture at 9-1 odds. Nolan’s film, upon release, has shortened to outright favouritism at 3-1 odds in most places.
When Flowers of the Killer Moon is released to positive fanfare in October, expect the price to trend south. Get on now.
$5.50 Pointsbet - Flowers of the Killer Moon
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series - Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
The race to win this prize is closer than bookies believe.
Rated a 40% or 2.50 probability to win, this price is too big and the % edge is too delicious to ignore.
$4.50 Unibet - Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series - Rachel Brosnahan
This is a play against Abbott Elementary, which is destined for a disappointing showing at this year’s Emmys. Quinta Brunson’s strong favouritism cannot be trusted which opens the opportunity for other betting options.
Rachel Brosnahan is a previous Emmys winner and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is well liked by the voting body with 14 nominations, while Abbott has seen just 8.
Brosnahan is rated at least a 1/3 chance, and with odds of $4.33 we are again presented with a significant market edge of what the pricing should be.
$4.33 Sportsbet - Rachel Brosnahan
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie - Claire Danes
Emmys voters love to rinse and repeat, and Claire Danes’ three timing winning track record can be trusted to win again.
Rated a 45-50% chance for Danes to claim a fourth Emmys statue, this price is a gift.
Niecy Nash-Betts as current market favourite is wrong.
$3.75 Sportsbet - Claire Danes
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Phil Dunster and James Marsden
Jury Duty is a horrible execution of comedy, but we are not in the business of betting on what we like. Marsden is favoured by reliable predictions pundits, and the price of $17 is incredible.
Likewise in value, Phil Dunster’s character in Ted Lasso undergoes the biggest character arc in the series and should be at last 2nd to 3rd line in betting.
Wrong price presents opportunity for profit.
$17.00 TAB - James Marsden
$26.00 TAB - Phil Dunster
Max Renn
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series - Jason Sudeikis
One shot here for Jason Sudeikis in Ted Lasso’s final season. This bookmaker thinks it is a long shot, I think not.
Starring in a show that is not a comedy, Jeremy Allen White’s odds of 1.05 are crazytown.
$9.00 Unibet- Jason Sudeikis
Tony Coca-Cola
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series - Kieran Culkin
A strong favourite on Gold Derby, this is a crazy price for Culkin.
$2.25 Unibet - Kieran Culkin
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Comedy Series - The Bear
Not priced correctly and must be pounced upon.
$3.75 Unibet - The Bear
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series - Rachel Brosnahan
The Professor and I are aligned on this bet.
$4.33 Sportsbet - Rachel Brosnahan
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie - Steven Yeun
A Beef sweep could be on the cards.
$3.00 TAB - Steven Yeun
75th Primetime Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie - Claire Danes
Danes looks the good here.
$3.75 Sportsbet - Claire Danes