Frontrunner Farrell?
After a handful of wins over the past few weeks, Colin Farrell might have overtaken Brendan Fraser as the Best Actor frontrunner.
He’s definitely locked for a top 3 finish, but I’m not ready to anoint Farrell (or dismiss Fraser) just yet.
My main issue is with Farrell’s performance, and its lack of traditional Oscar-friendly bells and whistles.
When was the last time someone won Best Actor without any meaty, really OBVIOUS character hook?
Over the past ten years, we’ve had Smith, Hopkins, Phoenix, Malek, Oldman, Leo, Redmayne, McConaughey, DDL – they all had some sort of performative crutch; an affected character quirk, a real-life basis, significant physicality, or manipulated appearance (or a combination of the four), that made it far easier for John Q. Academy to recognise (and subsequently vote for) the acting.
Casey Affleck in Manchester By The Sea is probably the exception. A very regular character, dealing with some mostly regular problems (albeit plastered on thick with melodrama and convenient contrivance.)
My point is that, historically, it’s very tough to break through in this category if you don’t have anything (however transparently manufactured or manipulative) for the regular Academy populace to grab onto. Quiet, soulful performances rarely get recognised.
That, I would argue, gives Fraser and Butler the edge over Farrell.
(Fraser probably has the quiet, soulful edge over Farrell also. A tie, at best.)
Colin Farrell stars in The Banshees of Inisherin Picture courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
But there are still strong factors to get Farrell over the line:
You’d think BAFTA will favour one of the hometown boys, either Farrell or Nighy, and 9 of the last 10 BAFTA Actor winners have gone on to win the Oscar;
Banshees is much more certain for an Oscar Best Picture nomination than The Whale. Since the expanded Best Picture ballot in 2010, 12/13 Best Actor winners’ films have also been nominated for Best Picture – a very strong correlation;
And you could probably throw in the career achievement argument for Farrell too. (An infinitely more valid reason for him than those trotting it out for Yeoh this season. That’s just baffling, blinkered behaviour from the Film Twitterati.)
With the release of The Whale this weekend, this race should hopefully become clearer. Early Friday reactions still look heavily Fraser-positive, and as The Professor noted in our last post, Elvis just keeps on keeping on. Best Actor may not be as stacked a race as Best Actress (it rarely is), but it’s certainly tighter than the bookies think.
For my own bets, 55% of my stake in this category is on Fraser, with cover on Farrell, Butler, Nighy, and unfortunately Jackman. (I jumped very early based on Hopkins’ success two years ago.) I’ll likely get back on Farrell – 4.50 is still too tasty a price.
Best current prices (as of 11/12/22):
Fraser $1.66 Bet365
Farrell $4.50 Bet365
Butler $8 TAB