Precursor Precis
As we wait for the bookies to get their Oscar prices together after today’s nominations, what value can be found at the guild and BAFTA awards?
The major precursor awards (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA) always offer some handy insight as to eventual Oscar winners. But, as The Professor pointed out earlier this week, they can also provide decent betting opportunities along the way.
Here are my selections:
Director Guild Awards (DGA) - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
The Everything Everywhere love is rising everywhere. Can it continue its ascension here? At this price, it’s definitely worth a play.
Small conviction.
$2.85 Sportsbet
Director Guild Awards (DGA) - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary - Laura Poitras (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed)
The critical fave so far this season, with the most ambitious and complicated assemblage of the nominees.
Medium conviction.
$1.70 Sportsbet
Director Guild Awards (DGA) - Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Comedy Series - Bill Hader (Barry - 710N)
Opened at $4.00. As beloved as The White Lotus is, it’s a show more praised for its performances and writing, rather than its direction.
Hader, however, has a true filmmaker’s eye, and the DGA recognises this; Barry has already gone 2/2 at the DGA over the years. And this episode of Barry (710N) is bravura filmmaking.
Large conviction.
$2.50 Sportsbet
Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA) - Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures - The Fabelmans and Top Gun: Maverick
I echo some of The Professor’s best bets from the past few days.
The PGA are historically a more conservative voting body, so the Everything Everywhere mania may not translate here. A play against the very short favourite seems worthwhile, and in Hollywood, what’s safer than Spielberg and Cruise? Small conviction on both.
Small conviction.
The Fabelmans $3.25 and Top Gun: Maverick $2.75 on Sportsbet
Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA) - Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures - All That Breathes
All That Breathes has a far higher degree of difficulty in terms of its production, compared to Fire of Love’s complete reliance on archival footage.
Medium conviction.
$3.75 Sportsbet
Michelle Yeoh’s performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once bodes well for betting success. Picture courtesy of A24
Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) - Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
As with Fraser, Yeoh gives the easier-to-recognise performance. Blanchett is just on another level, operating beyond the comprehension of most. While Yeoh goes crazy, kicks and cries. No contest.
Large conviction.
$1.83 Bet365
Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) - Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paying $1.66 at Bet365. SAG is actually SAG-AFTRA, a union of not only actors, but also journalists, radio personalities, recording artists, singers, voice actors, even influencers and models. The raw emotional gut punch of The Whale should prove enormously popular with both the wannabe crowd, and the actors who love to see ACTING, ensuring a Fraser victory.
Large conviction.
$2.00 Sportsbet
95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Elvis
And to finish, here’s some cheeky best bets for the Oscars, while the dust is still settling.
Ari Wegner almost made history last year as the first female DOP to win Cinematography. Perhaps Mandy Walker will break through this year – in a category with no favourite, why not go with the record breaker?
Medium conviction.
$5.00 Bet365
95th Academy Awards - Best Make-Up & Hairstyling - The Whale
Crazy price. Should be $1.20.
High conviction.
$1.83 Bet365
95th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking
Already a previous writing nominee, Polley is much beloved in the industry. She’s dominated the regional critics awards, and is streets ahead on GD. Great price.
Medium conviction.
$2.25 Bet365