2023 Oscars best bets
Oscar nominations week provides a triangle of betting angles and rich value.
Academy Award categories like Best Cinematography and Best Production Design are in flux. Opinions are divided. All of this presents the opportunity to pounce.
Best bets
The Professor
95th Academy Awards - Best Production Design - Babylon
It’s time to roll up the sleeves on our favourite Australian bookmaker: Neds.
Their pricing is deliciously wrong. Every morsel must be savoured.
Babylon divides opinion, however, there has been a consensus building this awards seasons around the excellence of its craft in production design and score.
To win the Oscar for Best Production Design, I have Babylon a 40% probability or $2.50 shot. The traders at Neds have it priced at $3.75, which is outrageous and a 50% price edge in our favour.
High conviction.
$3.75 Neds
95th Academy Awards - Best Production Design - Elvis
The Academy Awards adoration of Catherine Martin’s work continues, with another nod for Elvis. Martin has been many times nominated and the maximalist world of Elvis is a 30% or $3.33 probability to win.
Currently priced at $5.50 Bet365, there is a massive 65% edge in betting favour.
Elvis and Babylon in your pocket for this category will put you in a strong position on Oscar Sunday.
Medium conviction.
$5.50 Bet365
Behind every great man is a great woman: Catherine Martin dials up the Bazarama experience in Elvis. Picture courtesy of Catherine by Hugh Stewart)
95th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers
Caution with this category, as it historically garners less attention and opinion.
However, top performing Gold Derby experts Joyce Eng and Wilson Morales have predicted The Elephant Whisperers to win this category.
Neds have presented a gift price at $2.50. It should be shorter.
Medium conviction.
$2.50 Neds
95th Academy Awards - Best Editing - Top Gun: Maverick
Reliable Gold Derby pundits have Top Gun: Maverick in top spot. The market for this category has overreacted to the Everything Everywhere lovefest.
My ratings have Maverick to win this with a 45% probability or $2.22. Bet365 have presented a buffet of value at $2.87, or 29% price edge.
Medium conviction.
$2.87 Bet365
Tony Coca-Cola
Elvis, a true Hollywood film, received too many nominations to be denied. It will win at least one craft. Baz Luhrmann’s film presents great prices to take care of business.
95th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Elvis
$5.50 Bet365
95th Academy Awards - Best Production Design - Elvis
$5.50 Bet365
95th Academy Awards - Best Costume Design - Elvis
$2.50 Bet365
Max Renn
95th Academy Awards - Best Editing - Top Gun: Maverick
High conviction.
$2.87 Bet365