2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards, predictions and 10 best bets
When probability outweighs betting odds, the opportunity is hot.
The MTV Movie and TV Awards always represent an excellent opportunity for large paydays. Why?
This is not the bookies’ generation, and their odds are often too heavily guided on what is/has been critically or commercially popular.
Remember, all voting in these awards is done by the general public. Could 30yos, or even mid-20yos, be bothered voting? It’s a teenager’s game, 12-16 yos dominate. So get on TikTok, take the temperature, and take advantage; there is definite gravy to be had. As voting is decided by the general public, this a key influencer when considering betting options.
While we haven’t dabbled in this populist awards previously, the zeitgeist combined with a pulse check with the folks at Gold Derby provide a compass of what to steer into.
All markets at Sportsbet only. This bookmaker serves up a delicious feast of hot profit making.
Best bets - The Professor
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Performance in a Movie - Austin Butler (Elvis)
In my books, Brendan Fraser’s Best Actor win at the recent Academy Awards was a marginal surprise. The all out performance by Butler ticked many criteria for an Oscar winning performance. Unfortunately, Butler lost and Elvis delivered a donut across all categories for which it was nominated.
I am expecting the masses to swing the pendulum of favour back to Austin Butler.
He’s young, hot, everywhere on the media circuit and social media
Elvis is now available on Netflix
For MTV voters who care enough, there may be a backlash to the Elvis backlash - resulting in a push to get Butler recognised for his momentous performance
Butler’s price is horribly undercooked and underestimated. At a 50% probability of victory or $2 odds, the current $4.75 on offer is a 138% edge and must be pounced upon.
Michael B. Jordan in Creed III is the threat for this category. Recency bias will positively influence vote for the boxing movie, together with a strong audience rating and positive box office performance.
This is a high level conviction play.
$4.75 Sportsbet - Austin Butler (Elvis)
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Villain - M3GAN
The Blumhouse Productions hit M3GAN was a social media sensation, raking $176.8 million from a budget of $12 million.
If ever the zeitgeist pointed to a winner, it would be M3GAN. With a probability winning rating of 65% or $1.54, the odds of $3.75 present a huge 144% edge.
This is a shooting fish in a barrel opportunity. Do not miss it.
$3.75 Sportsbet - M3GAN
The Last of Us will dominate the 2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards. Picture courtesy of HBO
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Hero - Pedro Pascal
HBO defied the odds and the wobbly history of video game adaptations, with a runaway success of The Last of Us. Video gamers, critics, and non video gamers voted with their eyeballs as the TV show grew in popularity throughout the season.
The Last of Us will collect a number of MTV trophies on the night.
Less of a market edge with this betting angle, but this is another slam dunk bet. I rate Pedro Pascal performance a 60% winning probability or $1.67. Generously priced at $1.91, the market edge of 15% is a medium conviction play.
This is a shooting fish in a barrel opportunity. Do not miss it.
$1.91 Sportsbet - Pedro Pascal
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Duo - Pedro Pascal & Bella Ramsey
There is a significant gap between The Last of Us duo and the rest of the pack.
Rated a 70% probability or $1.43 for another win from The Last of Us team, Sportsbet have undercooked the price of $1.70. A 20% edge in betting favour presents a medium conviction play.
$1.72 Sportsbet - Pedro Pascal & Bella Ramsey
Tony Coca-Cola
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Movie - Scream VI
The Jenna Ortega factor is high, and likely the only reason to vote for it.
But worth a throw at those odds.
Low conviction.
$13 Sportsbet - Scream VI
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Show - Stranger Things and Wednesday
MTV’s demographic is skewing ever younger, and both of these shows feature school-aged characters. Perhaps Stranger Things has run out of steam; it won this category in its first two seasons, but wasn’t even nominated for its third.
But with no Euphoria, perhaps a default will be restored. Low conviction on both, though more confident with Wednesday.
$4.50 Sportsbet - Stranger Things
$6.50 Sportsbet - Wednesday
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Performance in a Show - Jenna Ortega and Selena Gomez
While Ortega is the current It Girl and deserved favourite, Selena Gomez has 412m Instagram followers – the third highest in the world.
High conviction on Ortega, hedge with Gomez.
$1.80 Sportsbet - Jenna Ortega
$4.50 Sportsbet - Selena Gomez
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Hero - Pedro Pascal
With The Mandalorian and The Last of Us under his belt, this is absolutely no contest. Should be sub-1.50.
High conviction.
$1.91 Sportsbet - Pedro Pascal
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Villain - M3GAN
Harry Styles at odds of $4.33 could definitely spoil, and is possibly worth a hedge. (Did enough young people see Don’t Worry Darling? Does it even matter?)
But the instantly meme-able M3GAN should prevail. (Even money that M3GAN does her dance at the Awards.)
Medium conviction.
$3.75 Sportsbet - M3GAN
2023 MTV Movie & TV Awards - Best Song - Carolina - Taylor Swift (Where the Crawdads Sing)
OneRepublic – 2.5m Instagram followers.
Doja Cat – 26m.
Lady Gaga – 54m.
Rihanna – 148m.
Demi Lovato – 153m.
Taylor Swift - 256m.
And no-one fucks with Swifties.
High conviction.
$5 Sportsbet - Taylor Swift