Critic crossover?
Do those that win the most regional critics’ awards go on to win the Critics Choice Award?
When looking to place bets on the Critics Choice Awards, I always assumed those Awards Leaderboards (as seen on Metacritic, AwardsWatch) were an excellent (if all-too-obvious) indicator for who would win the Critics Choice Award.
You would think there would be significant crossover between the regional film critic groups and the Critics Choice Association. Presumably they’re more or less the exact same people. (There are some Critics Choice Association members in Canada, but they’d likely be well in the minority.)
So it stands to reason that whoever is leading the leaderboards is a very safe bet for the Critics Choice Award, regardless of the odds or Gold Derby ranking. Right?
It’s a theory I’ve never properly checked. So I just thought I’d cast a quick eye over the historical record, and see if my feeling had any basis in fact.
NB - this was just an exercise in curiosity; nothing to bet the farm on. (Not yet, anyway.)
So, over the past four years only:
Picture - 3 of the past 4 regional critic award leaders went on to win the Critics Choice Award
Director - 4/4
Actor - 0/4
Actress - 1/4
Supporting Actor - 1/4
Supporting Actress - 3/4
Animated Feature - 4/4
International Feature - 3/4
(The writing categories are tough to negotiate, as most regionals just have one screenplay category, not two, so I avoided it altogether.)
Underestimated by bookmakers: Decision To Leave. Picture courtesy of Mubi
By that measure then:
Everything Everywhere All at Once will probably win Picture;
Daniels will win Director;
Colin Farrell will not win Actor;
Michelle Yeoh probably won’t win Actress; and
Decision to Leave will probably win International Feature.
All reasonable guesses, and with decent prices to boot. However, the same stats also say Ke Huy Quan probably won’t win, so take it or leave it!
I might have a small lay on the Daniels, Fraser/Butler, and Decision To Leave, just to see what happens. But I’m certainly intrigued enough to investigate these angles further for next year.
Tony Coca-Cola, 2023 Critics Choice Awards best bets:
Best Director – Daniels - $3.50 Bet Right
Best Actor – Brendan Fraser $2.50 - Sportsbet
Best Actor – Austin Butler $6 - Bet Right
Best Foreign Language Film – Decision To Leave - $5.50 Sportsbet