2023 BAFTA, PGA best bets
Following a big week of nominations and awards, the 2023 BAFTAs and Producers Guild of America Awards present some delicious profit making opportunities.
Best bets
The Professor
The market overreacted to Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Critics Choice Awards victory earlier this week. And when the market moves in a stampede towards one predicted outcome, opportunities blossom elsewhere.
Oscars pundits have overlooked the difference in the make-up of these voting bodies. The membership of the Producers Guild and Academy Awards is different: they are not critics. For the preferential voting system, a likeable enough, non offensive crowd pleaser is the preferred play.
For the Everything Everywhere All at Once precursor leader, speed wobbles begin here.
This is a betting play against the momentum of Everything Everywhere All at Once, whose price cannot be touched nor trusted. The betting angle for the top PGA prize is a bet across two: Top Gun: Maverick and The Fabelmans.
PGA - Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures - Top Gun: Maverick
The price of $3 for Top Gun: Maverick to take the honours, does not present an edge. I rate it a 28% chance or $3.57. However the box office champion of 2022 is a strong contender, and carries passion which will translate to votes.
Low to medium conviction.
Top Gun: Maverick - $3 Sportsbet
PGA - Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures - The Fabelmans
I rate The Fabelmans a 35% probability or $2.86 to win this. Priced at $5 by Sportsbet, this is a big overs edge of 75%
Low to medium conviction.
The Fabelmans - $5 Sportsbet
Kerry Condon is destined for BAFTA glory and a momentum shift in the Academy Award race. Picture courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
British Academy Film Awards - Best Film - The Banshees of Inisherin
BAFTAs is where the Brits back their own. Even though the BAFTAs are an organisation undergoing change, the voting bias for the home team should influence the vote for the Banshees band.
A 58% rating to win Best Film, this translates to a $1.74 modelled price and a 9% market edge.
Medium conviction.
The Banshees of Inisherin - $1.90 Sportsbet
British Academy Film Awards - Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Kerry Condon
The Academy Award Best Supporting Actress pendulum swing towards Angela Bassett over the last seven days has been astounding. Kerry Condon may be down in rankings, but she’s not out.
BAFTAs glory is where the momentum shifts, with a win for the hometown girl Kerry Condon. Reliable Gold Derby pundits also agree.
I rate a Condon victory at least a 65% chance or $1.54. Currently priced at $2, this is a booming 30% edge.
The bet is a little tempered by Bassett being black: the BAFTA voting group may feel pressured to avoid any backlash.
Medium conviction.
Kerry Condon $2 Sportsbet