The king rises
Best bet - Oscars 2023
The thesis
From the last 10 years there is a 72% (36/50) statistical correlation between an Academy Award Best Picture nomination and Best Actor nomination.
For example, when Will Smith won Best Actor, King Richard was nominated for Best Picture. In 2021, Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor, The Father was nominated for Best Picture. And while Chadwick Boseman was a strong favourite to win that year, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom was not nominated for a Best Picture.
The king rises
Elvis is sneaky rising as a strong Best Picture contender.
It is unlikely to go all the way to victory, however, the anchor of the statistical correlation points to a betting opportunity.
Austin Butler, who plays Elvis, is astonishing.
4 criteria favour Austin Butler, which will positively drive his Oscars 2023 campaign:
Plays a real life person. Oscar history loves a historical biopic. The path is positive: Rami Malek won Best Actor for Bohemian Rhapsody, Renee Zellweger won Best Actress for Judy
Rising momentum (which has not been priced in by bookies)
Good movie
Betting favourite Brendan Fraser as $1.50 (currently on Sportsbet) is an overcooked price
The antithesis
Unlike Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell, Butler does not have the narrative and body of work thesis in his favour.
This awards season, he is the new kid on the block. This tempers the conviction of the angle.
The bet
Undervalued by the market, at $9 with Pointsbet, Butler can be bet with 4 unit confidence.
Our previous best bets in the Best Actor include:
* Colin Farrell - September 12 podcast best bet at $21, now 2nd fave $3.50
* Brendan Fraser - August 8 podcast best bet at $4.50, now outright fave $1.50