Early 2026 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress & More

It’s never too early to dive into Oscar predictions for 2026! Well, actually, it is - you’re flying completely blind, it’s financially reckless, and we don’t recommend it. But that’s never stopped us before!

So, let’s get into the earliest possible form guide for betting on the 2026 Academy Awards. We’ll break down the top contenders, analyse the latest Oscar odds for 2026, and explore the best opportunities in the current betting market.

For reference, my early 2025 Oscar prediction results, as published on 8 May 2024, were:

• Best Picture Picture 3/10

• Best Director 0/5

• Best Actor 2/5

• Best Actress 0/5

• Best Supporting Actor 1/5

• Best Supporting Actress 1/5

The lack of Oscar love for Blitz in particular really hurt me!

Can Wicked: For Good Go All the Way?

The biggest question of the 2026 Oscars could be how much Wicked: For Good competes for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actress. 

Part 1 was expected to be a juggernaut, but faded fast after missing key nominations. Part 2 is darker, more intricate in plot, and lacks some of the sheer fun of the first. With big musical numbers and a grander scope, it may have the spectacle the Academy loves, but will it be enough? 

Wicked: For Good is currently 9th favourite for Best Picture at 23-1 odds (+2200). Director Jon M. Chu will be hoping for his first nomination, but can he pull it off? A nomination is possible, but he will struggle to win against stronger contenders.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no play.

Hamnet: Prestige Drama with Powerhouse Talent

Hamnet boasts impressive Oscar-friendly credentials: director Chloé Zhao, stars Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, an award-winning novel as its source (about the death of the young son of William Shakespeare), with producers Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg, and cinematography by Łukasz Żal (Cold War, The Zone of Interest).

Despite this pedigree, period dramas face challenges in the Best Picture race. Its chances could hinge on whether it sticks to historical authenticity or adopts a more modernist approach. When was the last period film (like, a really old period film) to win Picture? Gladiator in 2000, and funnily enough, Shakespeare In Love in 1998. Will they go for Shakespeare In Mourning? The Academy has changed a lot since then. 

It’s currently joint favourite for Best Picture at 10-1 (+900) in early Oscar odds.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no bet, yet.

Deliver Me from Nowhere: A Biopic with Academy Appeal

A Bruce Springsteen biopic starring Jeremy Allen White (fresh off his Emmy win for The Bear), and written/directed by Scott Cooper sounds like a major Oscar player.

The film could follow the path of Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody, securing key nominations, even if it doesn’t take the top prize; if Bob Dylan couldn’t break through, then Springsteen certainly won’t.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no bet on Best Picture, a watch on Acting betting markets.

After the Hunt: Roberts Returns

A legal thriller featuring Julia Roberts and directed by Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) has the ingredients to shake up the race. 

After the Hunt’s topical and salacious narrative, combined with a director known for his chameleonic style, the comeback of a superstar, and a strong supporting cast makes this a viable threat in multiple categories.

Early odds place it at 21-1 (+2000), making it an intriguing underdog in the Oscar betting market.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: bookmakers have underestimated this film, it’s an early bet at big odds.

The Ballad of a Small Player: Farrell’s Next Big Oscar Push

Edward Berger follows up Conclave with this Colin Farrell-led drama, also starring Tilda Swinton and adapted from Lawrence Osborne’s novel. The story follows a British gambler on the run in Macau, bringing in themes of fate, redemption, and self-destruction. 

The film’s premise has a fantasy-skew, which may not resonate with the Academy. But Berger’s track record is strong, and Farrell should be an early favourite for Best Actor. If the odds for the Irish actor land around 8-1 (+700), it’s a solid bet.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: a watch on Colin Farrell for Best Actor, if the price is right. Not convinced on Best Picture betting prospects.

Die, My Love: A Spiritual Successor to Nightbitch?

Lynne Ramsay directs Die, My Love, a psychological drama about postpartum depression, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, Nick Nolte, and Sissy Spacek. 

The film’s intense, immersive storytelling and Ramsay’s meticulous direction could make it a major player. Lawrence, known for taking bold roles, is already generating Best Actress buzz, and Ramsay’s history suggests this could be one of the most artistically striking films in contention.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no play at this stage, but a watch on Actress and Supporting categories.

One Battle After Another: The Paul Thomas Anderson/Oscar relationship 

Early reports on PTA’s One Battle After Another suggest it’s actually a big action comedy. Will there be enough gravitas to snag a Best Picture and Best Director nomination? 

Perhaps 1-2 Supporting Actor nominations instead. (Sean Penn is supposedly a lot of fun, maybe Regina Hall is a chance too.)

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no play on Best Picture, a watch on Supporting Actor and Actress markets.

The History of Sound: Double Oscar Nods for Paul Mescal?

Set in the early 1900s, The History of Sound stars Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor as two men who set out to document early American voices. Mescal’s character appears to be the lead, meaning he could score two Best Actor nominations in the same year (alongside Hamnet). Will there be blowback (so to speak) about straight actors playing gay characters?

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: watch on O’Connor for Supporting Actor.

Avatar 3: A Repeat of The Way of Water?

James Cameron’s Avatar 3 will be lurking, as usual. If The Way of Water is any indication, this film will be more of the same: an impressive technical achievement, but narratively more of the same. It currently holds 15-1 odds (+1400) in the Best Picture Oscar markets, tied with Spike Lee’s Highest to Lowest.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no bet.

Following the horror tailwinds set by The Substance, can Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein convert to Oscar contention?

Horror’s Growing Oscar Influence: Frankenstein

Is horror going mainstream? If The Substance can score nominations in Picture, Director, Actress and Original Screenplay, can Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein follow suit? An Academy favourite, Del Toro’s no doubt faithful adaptation of Mary Shelley’s novel may be a strong craft contender, but unlikely to score any above-the-line wins.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: Watch on craft only.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey: Big Names, Bold Execution

This could go either way. There’s been zero publicity for it, its fantasy elements might be a hurdle, and director Kogonada might be too subtle for an Academy that typically rewards the BIG. But with Colin Farrell (another double Best Actor nominee?) and Margot Robbie, it might be something.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: watch closely. Could be a serious contender, could be a failed experiment.

The Lost Bus: All Aboard The Paul Greengrass Express

Paul Greengrass’s last outing News of the World was nominated for 4 Oscars! The Lost Bus is right in his wheelhouse: tense, dangerous, immediate, based on a true story (a true Californian story too!) I think this is a top tier contender for Picture, Director, Actor (Matthew McConaughey), and Supporting Actress (America Ferrera). 

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: currently 11-1 (+1000) for Picture; a good, not great early price. We can do better, especially post-Cannes. I’d get on if odds are over 15-1 (+1400).

The dual forces of a career narrative and A24 bode well for Rose Byrne’s Oscar contention

If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You: A24’s Next Big Push?

Rose Byrne won Best Actress at Berlin for If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You, following strong Sundance reviews. With A24 backing it, Byrne is now a real contender in a stacked Best Actress race.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: a strong watch on Rose Byrne in the Best Actress betting markets.

Jay Kelly: The Baumbach Bubble

I’m lukewarm on Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, but I’m throwing it in for Best Picture just to make up the numbers. There’ll undoubtedly be at least one international film breaking through, and it’ll likely come from Cannes in May. (Maybe the Dardenne brothers’ Young Mothers? About time they got themselves a Best Picture nomination.)

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no play

Kristen Stewart’s Oscar Chances

I would love to include Kristen Stewart for Best Actress in Kirsten Johnson’s Sontag. The film just sounds too formally adventurous to be embraced by the Academy. (Maybe Nickel Boys paved the way a little?) But anything K&K do, separately or together, is worthwhile.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: A long shot, but worth watching if the campaign builds momentum.

Will Warfare Be Too Bold for the Academy?

Warfare looks really interesting. Alex Garland is co-directing with Ray Mendoza, who based the film on his own experiences as an Iraq War veteran. Great ensemble. High 70s on Metacritic. Expect it to go pretty hard, probably too hard for the greater Academy.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: Expect industry buzz, but a tough road for major Oscar nods.

Too Weird for the Oscars?

Bugonia, much like Mickey 17, looks too wacky to seriously contend. Yorgos is just getting more Yorgos as his career continues. Not sure anyone is ready for it.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: Likely too niche, but could pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination. No bet for Best Picture.

Can Linklater Sneak Into the Best Picture Race?

Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague will be curious: its subject matter is very inside baseball (the greater Academy would know of Godard, but I doubt most of them have seen more than one of his films), but Linklater knows how to make enjoyable, accessible movies. Maybe a Best Picture nomination? I don’t think so.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: no bet.

Daniel Day-Lewis’ Return: A Serious Contender?

Since retiring after Phantom Thread in 2017, Daniel Day-Lewis returns with Anenome, directed by his son Ronan, and co-written between them. Hard to ever discount DDL, but as it’s Ronan’s debut feature (after only one short film), I can’t see it breaking through with any genuine impact.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: DDL is always a factor in a Best Actor race, but the film itself may struggle to gain traction.

Timothée Chalamet and a Wild Ensemble

I don’t rate Marty Supreme’s chances at all, even with Timothée Chalamet leading a Yahtzee cast (Gwyneth Paltrow, Tyler the Creator, Sandra Bernhard, Abel Ferrara). 

A table tennis hustler wins the world championship – there’s gotta be more to it than that. Maybe a Supporting Actress nomination for SAG-president Fran Drescher. (Comeback narrative!)

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: Chalamet alone won’t carry this to Oscar success, but Drescher’s campaign could be fun. No bet for Best Picture.

Oscars betting contenders and generic family dramas don’t mix

I also don’t rate Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value or Celine Song’s Materialists. I can’t put my faith (or my money) into a generic family drama, or generic romantic comedy, no matter the talents of their makers. They both just seem so… regular.

Bottom line Oscars betting verdict: Likely too conventional to make waves in the Oscars betting market.

2026 Oscars Betting Odds & Market Watch

If you’re looking at the Oscars betting market, favoured contenders are in bold.

Oscar Best Picture predictions & odds 

 After the Hunt

 The Ballad of a Small Player

 Deliver Me From Nowhere

 Die, My Love

 Frankenstein

 Hamnet

 The History of Sound

 Jay Kelly

 The Lost Bus

 Wicked: For Good

Oscar Best Director predictions

 Edward Berger - The Ballad of a Small Player

 Scott Cooper - Deliver Me From Nowhere

 Paul Greengrass - The Lost Bus

 Luca Guadagnino – After the Hunt

 Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

Oscar Best Actor predictions

 Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player

 Matthew McConaughey – The Lost Bus

 Paul Mescal – The History of Sound

 Paul Mescal – Hamnet

 Jeremy Allen White - Deliver Me From Nowhere

Oscar Best Actress predictions

 Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

 Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

 Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good

 Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love

 Julia Roberts – After the Hunt

Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions

 Andrew Garfield – After the Hunt

 Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound

 Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

 Joseph Quinn – Warfare

 Jeremy Strong - Deliver Me From Nowhere

Oscar Best Supporting Actress predictions

 Fran Drescher - Marty Supreme

 Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt

 America Ferrera – The Lost Bus

 Gaby Hoffman - Deliver Me From Nowhere

 Sissy Spacek – Die, My Love